Saxony's Legislative Assembly election on September 1 promises a nail-biting contest with momentous implications for the Dresden state parliament. With over 3.3 million eligible voters, the outcome could shift the political landscape significantly.
The CDU, the leading force since 1990, faces a fierce battle against the right-wing populist AfD. Recent polls show a neck-and-neck race between the two parties, but the CDU seems to have edged ahead in the latest survey.
"This election is our last stand," declared Michael Kretschmer, Saxony's Minister-President and the CDU's top candidate. He urged citizens to back the democratic center.
As of the most recent polls, the Saxony CDU is predicted to earn between 29 to 33 percent of the vote, while the AfD hovers between 30 to 32 percent. The BSW is slated to become the new third strongest force in Saxony, expected to garner between 11 to 15 percent. The SPD and Greens are predicted to land between six to seven percent and five to six percent, respectively.
Forming a stable government could prove challenging in Saxony. Kretschmer may have to settle for second place with the Saxony CDU.
Kretschmer's current Black-Green-Red coalition is doubtful to continue, and his options without the Greens are limited. If the CDU fails to secure more than 32.2 percent of the votes, they would record the poorest CDU result in a Saxony state election to date. Even with a potential CDU-BSW alliance, Kretschmer might only secure a narrow majority.
Kretschmer's negotiation power also depends on how many parties clear the five-percent hurdle. For instance, both the SPD and Greens in Saxony were seen at 5.0 percent in a recent poll. Without sufficient direct mandates, the goal of "re-entry into the state parliament" could be unstable for these parties.
Kretschmer enjoys popular support among the population. In the direct election question of the pollsters, CDU politician Kretschmer is well ahead of AfD's top candidate Jörg Urban. Only 17 percent of those surveyed could envision the right-wing candidate as the future head of government. The AfD's top candidate underperforms in this poll compared to his party's standing.
Unlike Thuringia, Saxony's state electoral law offers the so-called basic mandate clause. If a party wins more than two direct mandates, they can bypass the five-percent hurdle and still enter the state parliament. The Left is unlikely to be represented in the future state parliament, consistently scoring below five percent.
The forthcoming election has political scientists perplexed: if both The Left and the Social Democrats fail to enter the state parliament, there will only be three factions represented there. The CDU is contemplating connecting with Wagenknecht's alliance, although the alliance is primarily campaigning for Wagenknecht in Saxony, and their program remains largely unknown.
Green Party's leading figure in Saxony, Katja Meier, rejected the possibility of forming a coalition with the BSW, citing their Stand on Russia as a key concern. Meier views the coalition with the CDU and SPD as a victory and criticized Kretschmer for opposing a potential Green-CDU-SPD alliance.
The final ratios of the Saxon state parliament's majority will only be established on election day, with voter turnout likely impacting the actual result. The CDU received its lowest score in Saxony since unification in the 2019 election, capturing 32.1% of the votes. The AfD finished in second place with 27.5%, followed by the Left with 10.4%. The Greens garnered 8.6% of the votes in Saxony in 2019, and the Social Democrats came in fifth with a 7.7% vote share.
