Unyielding Slump in Bitcoin Value: Investigating the Inhibiting Factors Below the $100,000 Mark
Bitcoin's Hype Wave Fails to Break $100K Barrier: Here's Why
In the crypto market, Bitcoin's recent spike to $94,000 has generated lots of bullish vibes. However, this price rise hasn't successfully surpassed the $95,000 mark to garner real momentum. This stagnation is part of a broader trend that has left Bitcoin's predicted 5th wave breakout above $100,000 hanging in the balance.
Bitcoin's Wobbly 5th Wave
The weekly Bitcoin chart demonstrates a typical impulsive sequence, conforming to Elliott Wave Theory. Yet, it's becoming increasingly clear that the 5th wave has not followed a straightforward path. As illustrated in the chart below, Bitcoin entered a 5th wave setup in the heart of 2024 during its initial surge toward the $100,000 mark. This 5th wave setup is the concluding wave in a series of Elliott Waves that trace back to late 2022.
Buckle Up: Global M2 Money Supply Signals a $100K Bitcoin AheadBut, the structure suggests an extended 5th wave, a phenomenon that happens when the final upsurge lasts longer than usual, complete with sub-impulse waves. This lingering behavior has kept Bitcoin trading below $100,000.
Interestingly, Bitcoin is now running its 3rd sub-impulse wave. If this extended wave plays out completely, it could line up with the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, resulting in a peak beyond $170,000. According to a crypto analyst, who goes by the pseudonym Charting Guy on social media platform X, this could lead to significant altcoin rallies during the wave's latter stages.
Multiple Destinations Await Bitcoin
Apart from the extended 5th wave scenario, the analyst offered other projections for Bitcoin. The $95,000 level has been met as a target for a brief relief rally with Bitcoin's latest breakout. Moreover, surpassing this mark is essential to sustaining the bullish trend.
Lucky Player Wins $2.5 Million on BitStarz: Want Your Chance?Moving forward, possible targets set by the analyst include a potential double top around $109,000 and a bullish Fibonacci extension move towards $128,000, corresponding to the 1.414 Fibonacci level. Above that, a continued rally could push BTC towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension close to $173,000, though this upper target is more optimistic, pegged as the upper end of the extended 5th wave.
In contrast, momentum indicators are offering a more subdued backdrop. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe features a pattern of lower highs, which may suggest a bearish divergence.
Such divergence often implies weakening internal strength within the uptrend, even though the price continues to rise. It doesn't negate the possibility of higher prices, but it boosts the likelihood of corrective phases along the way, which is typical of the extended 5th wave.
Presently, BTC is trading at $94,686. On-chain data points to an impending supply squeeze due to the continuous wave of Bitcoin outflows from crypto exchanges.
Editorial Process
Enrichment Data:
- Overall: Bitcoin's current Elliott Wave setup suggests a complex extended 5th wave formation, originating in mid-2024, characterized by sub-impulse waves delaying the imminent breakout above $100,000[1]. The weekly chart indicates Bitcoin is now navigating its 3rd sub-impulse wave within this extended wave, resulting in recent price volatility below $95,000 despite a spike to $94,000[1].
Market Impact:
- Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analysts predict the extended 5th wave could align with Bitcoin's four-year cycle, potentially reaching a peak beyond $170,000 if the sub-waves progress as expected[1].
- Altcoin Rally Catalyst: A fully realized 5th wave in Bitcoin could trigger substantial altcoin rallies during its latter stages, as capital rotates into riskier assets[1][4]. Altcoin dominance recently recovered from a 5th wave finale in its own cycle, indicating readiness for upward momentum[4].
Observations:
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) remains above critical support ($42), suggesting its current correction may represent wave 4 before a final bullish wave 5 later in 2025[5].
- Market Timing: The extended 5th wave's complexity suggests potential delays but maintains the prospect of a parabolic move, contingent on sustained bullish technicals[1][5].
This Elliott Wave interpretation implies Bitcoin's next major breakout may act as the catalyst for broader crypto market growth, particularly for altcoins poised to benefit from evolving investor sentiment[1][4].
- The extended 5th wave in Bitcoin's current Elliott Wave setup, originating in mid-2024, indicates a complex formation of sub-impulse waves that could result in a peak beyond $170,000 by aligning with the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle.
- If this extended 5th wave plays out completely, there is a likelihood of corrective phases along the way, typical of such extended waves, as suggested by the bearish divergence shown in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe.
- Interestingly, this extended 5th wave scenario could lead to significant altcoin rallies, as capital rotates into riskier assets, according to a crypto analyst known as Charting Guy on social media platform X.
- In contrast to the bearish divergence, BTC is experiencing an impending supply squeeze due to the continuous wave of Bitcoin outflows from crypto exchanges, which may boost the chances of a price rally above $100,000.
