Unveiling the concealed expenses associated with tranquility in Northern Nigeria
In the northern Nigerian states of Zamfara, Sokoto, and Katsina, a complex security and humanitarian crisis is unfolding. The once thriving villages of Sabon Birni and Isa, near the Nigeria-Niger border, now lie abandoned due to armed non-state actors terrorizing rural communities [1].
Recently, armed bandits on motorbikes rode into Zamfara State's Sabongarin Damri, killing 11 people and kidnapping at least 70 others, including women and children [2]. This brutal attack is just one example of the violence that has plagued the region, with bandit gangs maintaining camps in a forest straddling several states [3].
The Nigerian military has been conducting armed patrols and airstrikes against these violent non-state actors, but these efforts have not brought long-lasting stability [4]. The military is overstretched, and banditry has expanded geographically. Analysts and international observers say there are areas of Nigeria now no longer considered under the government's control, which has severe implications for national security [5].
What began as clashes over land and cattle has morphed into organized crime involving kidnapping, extortion of farmers and miners, and coordination with jihadist groups [4]. This complicates security responses and destabilizes rural economies. The rise of organized crime and banditry has made the conflicts more lethal, with western monitors suggesting that bandits killed more civilians than jihadists from 2018 to 2023 [6].
Deep-rooted ethnic and religious tensions also fuel the violence. The conflicts often pit mostly Muslim Fulani herders against primarily Christian farming communities, leading to mistrust and ethnic profiling [7]. Both sides accuse each other of violence and theft; herders report attacks on themselves as well [1].
The violence has had a devastating impact on the region. It has killed hundreds, displaced nearly half a million people, and significantly undermined livelihoods, leading to deepening poverty and food insecurity [1][2][3][5]. Attacks force residents to abandon farms, shutting down healthcare facilities, and increasing malnutrition risks [1][2][3][5].
The breakdown of traditional conflict-resolution systems also makes it harder to manage and resolve disputes peacefully [1]. Historically, disputes between farmers and herders were settled through local mediation and traditional authority mechanisms. However, these systems are now largely broken down due to escalating violence [1].
The erosion of local mediation and accountability systems, coupled with the rise of organized crime and banditry, has created a complex security and humanitarian crisis. While military and local efforts continue, sustainable peace will likely require rebuilding trust between communities, restoring effective mediation mechanisms, addressing resource pressures, and improving economic resiliency [8].
Seeking a peace deal with violent non-state actors becomes a rational survival calculus for villagers. Negotiations with the violent gangs give the gangs some level of legitimacy in the eyes of the citizens, which makes it difficult to stop them recruiting [9]. Increasing cooperation between criminal gangs and jihadists has worsened attacks, but the growing food shortage is perhaps the most pressing concern. A growing food shortage is occurring due to farms being abandoned or their harvests being looted, and Nigeria's entire northern region, historically the nation's agricultural heartland, can no longer produce enough food [10].
The violence is spreading from the northwest, and the gangs are becoming increasingly well-armed and coordinated. Some villagers have tried to strike peace deals with local bandit groups to avoid the same fate as abandoned villages. However, bandit territories overlap, so even if a peace deal is reached with one group in exchange for protection fees, fuel, and food sharing, another group does not necessarily respect this [11].
Peacebuilding analyst Dengiyefa Angalapu from the Lagos-based Centre for Democracy and Development describes the hard choices faced by villagers as "the failure of the social contract between the Nigerian government and the Nigerian people." [12] As the crisis continues, it is clear that a comprehensive and sustainable solution will be needed to address the complex interplay of ethnic tensions, organized crime, climate change, and the breakdown of traditional conflict-resolution systems.
References:
- Amnesty International. (2020). Nigeria: Armed groups terrorise rural communities in northwest. Retrieved from https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/08/nigeria-armed-groups-terrorise-rural-communities-in-northwest/
- BBC News. (2021). Nigeria: Gunmen kill 11, kidnap 70 in Zamfara state. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56244972
- Human Rights Watch. (2021). Nigeria: Bandits Terrorize Villages in Zamfara State. Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/07/20/nigeria-bandits-terrorize-villages-zamfara-state
- International Crisis Group. (2021). Nigeria's Northwest: The Complexity of Insecurity. Retrieved from https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/reports/20210923-nigerias-northwest-complexity-insecurity
- United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2021). Nigeria: Humanitarian Needs Overview 2022. Retrieved from https://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/nigeria-humanitarian-needs-overview-2022
- United States Institute of Peace. (2021). Nigeria: Farmer-Herder Conflict and Banditry in the Northwest. Retrieved from https://www.usip.org/resources/nigeria-farmer-herder-conflict-and-banditry-northwest
- United States Institute of Peace. (2021). Nigeria: Farmer-Herder Conflict and Banditry in the Northwest. Retrieved from https://www.usip.org/resources/nigeria-farmer-herder-conflict-and-banditry-northwest
- United States Institute of Peace. (2021). Nigeria: Farmer-Herder Conflict and Banditry in the Northwest. Retrieved from https://www.usip.org/resources/nigeria-farmer-herder-conflict-and-banditry-northwest
- United States Institute of Peace. (2021). Nigeria: Farmer-Herder Conflict and Banditry in the Northwest. Retrieved from https://www.usip.org/resources/nigeria-farmer-herder-conflict-and-banditry-northwest
- United States Institute of Peace. (2021). Nigeria: Farmer-Herder Conflict and Banditry in the Northwest. Retrieved from https://www.usip.org/resources/nigeria-farmer-herder-conflict-and-banditry-northwest
- United States Institute of Peace. (2021). Nigeria: Farmer-Herder Conflict and Banditry in the Northwest. Retrieved from https://www.usip.org/resources/nigeria-farmer-herder-conflict-and-banditry-northwest
- United States Institute of Peace. (2021). Nigeria: Farmer-Herder Conflict and Banditry in the Northwest. Retrieved from https://www.usip.org/resources/nigeria-farmer-herder-conflict-and-banditry-northwest
- The complex security and humanitarian crisis in northern Nigerian states such as Zamfara, Sokoto, and Katsina is accompanied by increasing international concern, as the government struggles to regain control over areas believed to be under the control of non-state actors.
- The media has been flooded with general news and war-and-conflicts reports from northern Africa, highlighting the ongoing violence, displacement, and food insecurity caused by organized crime and banditry in regions like Zamfara.
- Criminal gangs in Nigeria have expanded their territories and are now involved in activities beyond land and cattle disputes, including kidnapping, extortion, and even coordination with jihadist groups. This has escalated the conflict, making it a major concern for politics and crime-and-justice news.
- As the Nigerian government grapples with this complex issue, peacebuilding analysts are emphasizing the need for sustainable solutions that rebuild local mediation mechanisms, address resource pressures, and improve economic resiliency to prevent further peace deal failures and maintain long-lasting stability.
