Unpredictability marks the Áras election race this year, with uncertain outcomes ahead.
The 2025 Irish presidential election, once thought to be a predictable affair, has taken an unexpected turn following the withdrawal of Mairead McGuinness from the race due to health reasons. The former European Commissioner and MEP's departure has left her party colleagues, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin, as well as several independent candidates, scrambling to find a new contender for the prestigious post.
Mairead McGuinness, who had a long-held ambition to become the President of Ireland, lost the Fine Gael candidacy for the presidential election in 2011. However, her chances this time around seemed promising, with many considering her a likely candidate and a potential winner. The sudden departure has left the election's outcome less certain, and the complexion of the race has fundamentally changed.
In the wake of McGuinness' withdrawal, Fine Gael has reopened nominations. Heather Humphreys and Seán Kelly have confirmed their intention to seek the Fine Gael nomination. If Kelly runs, he would have to address his previous comments about the presidency being a "largely ceremonial role."
Fianna Fáil may field a candidate if one with broad consensus emerges. Mary Hanafin has announced her intention to seek the Fianna Fáil nomination. Other speculated names include Bertie Ahern, Packie Bonner, Geraldine Byrne Nason, Colum Eastwood, and Niall Quinn, though many have either ruled themselves out or yet to confirm.
As of late August 2025, Sinn Féin is still undecided about fielding their own candidate or supporting another contender.
The race has also seen a surge of independent candidates. Catherine Connolly, an Independent TD, has formally confirmed her presidential bid with support from parties like the Social Democrats, People Before Profit, and Solidarity. Businessman Gareth Sheridan, backed by some local authorities, is seeking the presidency to represent youth. Conor McGregor has been linked to a potential run, but he has made no official announcement.
Aontú's leader Peadar Tóibín has been exploring consensus candidates, but no firm nominations from that party have emerged. Joe Duffy has ruled himself out.
The election must take place by November 11, 2025, and more candidates could still emerge in the coming weeks. The more competitive elements in Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil, and maybe some ambitious independents will likely see this as an opportunity.
Mairead McGuinness' supporters believed the 2025 presidential contest would be a vindication for her. Recently discharged from the hospital, McGuinness' exit from the race has made the contest more contestable. The presidency might seem a tempting redemptive narrative arc for Frances Fitzgerald, who, along with Seán Kelly, was understood to be interested in contesting the presidential election.
As the race heats up, the parties and independent candidates will have to carefully consider their strategies and present their strongest candidates to win the support of the Irish people. The 2025 presidential election has become a race to be witnessed, rather than predicted.
The departure of Mairead McGuinness from the 2025 Irish presidential race, due to health reasons, has shifted the focus of the election from a predicted affair to a more contestable one. The presidency might provide a redemptive narrative arc for Frances Fitzgerald, who, alongside Seán Kelly, was previously thought to be interested in contesting the election, offering a new strategic consideration for the parties and candidates involved.
