Unjustified Decision-Making by the Cardinals due to Sunk Cost Fallacy
St. Louis Cardinals' Disheartening Spiral: Sunk Cost Fallacy Ruining Baseball
The St. Louis Cardinals plummeted below the .500 mark for the first time in 2025, courtesy of a crushing weekend series against the Boston Red Sox. As the miseries unfolded, the fans watched helplessly as the Cardinals' performance went from downright mediocre to simply aggravating, to outright humiliating.
On Friday, the Cardinals stumbled to a 13-9 loss, all thanks to a poor outing from Erick Fedde and the bullpen's epically failed attempts to hold onto leads. On Sunday's first game of the doubleheader, the bullpen once again caved when the lights blared their brightest, with closers Ryan Helsley and Ryan Fernandez choking under pressure. But the truly disappointing night arrived during Sunday Night Baseball, as the Cardinals' long-standing nemesis — the sunk cost fallacy — reappeared for all to witness as Miles Mikolas offered up a cringe-worthy outing in front of a national audience.
Embracing Folly: The Cardinals' Unhealthy Romance with Sunk Cost Fallacy
It's no secret that the Cardinals have been unwilling to part ways with questionable contracts in favor of young, promising talents. This stubbornness, when combined with hefty contracts, leads to a frustrating situation for both fans and the team.
Whether you characterize this year as a reset or a transition, the development and opportunities of young arms like Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore, and others are essential. Clearly, the Cardinals aim to win, but it's equally critical to understand the talents within their young pitchers. Miles Mikolas, however, is unlikely to boost the team's chances of winning.
Ever since the Cardinals doled out a bewildering extension to Mikolas during spring training in 2023, he has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, as far as efficiency goes. Mikolas currently boasts an 11.25 ERA while providing the Cardinals with a meager eight innings in his opening two starts of 2025. Since the 2023 season began, Mikolas has posted a 5.17 ERA in 69 games, underwhelming compared to his contemporaries.
Since 2023, Mikolas ranks:- Lowest in K% (16.2%)- Among the top 10 worst in HR/9- Among the top 10 worst in BAA- Among the top 10 worst in WHIP- Among the top 10 worst in FIP- Naturally, he also stands among the top 10 worst in ERA
There's no justifiable reason for a pitcher like Mikolas to remain in a big-league rotation when eager young players are eager to shine. Yet, alas, it seems the contract plays.
The Cardinals will argue they need veteran arms to ensure they can pitch innings throughout the year. Fine, well, they've got Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Steven Matz around. Between these three, Pallante, McGreevy, Liberatore, Mathews, and even Gordon Graceffo, Roddery Munoz, Sem Robberse, Tekoah Roby, and Zack Thompson on the 40-man roster alone, they possess a robust roster of options.
If Mikolas continues to falter in his starts, it's safe to assume things can't get much worse with the young bucks. And if for some bizarre reason the Cardinals find themselves starting unlikely pitchers for extensive stretches, well, chances are the season wasn't looking promising no matter Mikolas' presence.
They could always sign a veteran arm down the line, if that were truly a concern. Kyle Gibson signed for merely $5.25 million at the close of spring training. It's only a matter of time before numerous starters become accessible for $5 million or less if the Cardinals require someone to pitch some innings as the season unfolds.
Chronic Missteps: John Mozeliak and the Cardinals' Shaky Decisions
The Cardinals are far from alone in their misguided decision-making, but that does not justify their actions. When it's evident that a contract is a mistake, it's wiser to cut the rope rather than continuing to invest in a losing proposition. Doing so might minimize the negative value that such players contribute to the team.
It's Miles Mikolas today, but don't be surprised to see other misguided decisions in the Cardinals' past. Famously, the Dexter Fowler experiment was a questionable decision that marred the team's chances of snagging stars like Bryce Harper. Paul DeJong's prolonged opportunities at shortstop, despite his struggles, were also puzzling. And, honestly, it's a blurred memory whether or not the Cardinals allowed Brett Cecil to appear in 40 games in 2018, boasting a 6.89 ERA. Spare me the shock of such absurdity.
While the Cardinals might not part ways with Mikolas anytime soon, it's only a matter of time before they realize their error. Fans have endured this heartbreak before, and here's hoping the Cardinals will make the right move soon — for everyone's sake.
- The St. Louis Cardinals' ongoing attachment to the underperforming Miles Mikolas, despite his abysmal statistics in MLB since 2023, is a prime example of their reluctance to let go of questionable contracts.
- In a doubleheader against an opposing team, the Cardinals' bullpen's inability to hold leads on both days and Miles Mikolas' dismal performance during Sunday Night Baseball perfectly encapsulate the team's chronic missteps.
- The Cardinals' refusal to embrace fresh, young talent like Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore, and others, in favor of veterans like Mikolas, is indicative of a stagnant approach that hampers the team's chances of success.
- If Miles Mikolas fails to improve his performance significantly, the Cardinals will likely find the young pitchers reaching their potential, leaving Mikolas' continued presence seemingly unnecessary, especially considering the availability of veteran arms like Kyle Gibson at a more affordable price.
