United Nations Forecast Predicts India's Population Will Swell to 1.46 Billion in Current Year
India's Population Trends: A Glimpse at the Unnoticed Crisis
India's population is projected to hit 1.46 billion by 2025, according to a new UN demographic report. However, the real crisis isn't overpopulation – it's unmet reproductive goals. That's the crux of the UNFPA's 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled "The Real Fertility Crisis."
The report highlights the fact that millions of people can't achieve their desired family size. This, not underpopulation or overpopulation, is the genuine issue, it claims. The solution lies in augmenting reproductive agency – a person's ability to make their own, informed decisions about sex, contraception, and family planning.
The report also shines a light on some key demographic shifts. India's total fertility rate (TFR) has dipped below the replacement rate, sitting at 1.9 births per woman. This means that, on average, Indian women are having fewer kids than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next, without migration.
While the slowing birth rate is notable, India's youth population remains substantial. Around 24%, 17%, and 26% of the population are in the age brackets of 0-14, 10-19, and 10-24, respectively. A whopping 68% of Indians fall into the working age group (15-64), creating a potential demographic dividend if matched with sufficient employment opportunities and policy support.
The older population (65 and older) stands at 7%, a figure that's expected to increase dramatically in the next few decades as life expectancy improves. As per the report's projections, life expectancy at birth stands at 71 years for men and 74 years for women by 2025.
India currently boasts a population of 1.463.9 million, making it the world's most populous nation with nearly 1.5 billion people. This number is expected to grow to about 1.7 billion before it starts to decline, around 40 years from now.
The UN report shows that behind these numbers are the stories of both families that chose to grow and those where women had limited control over their reproductive choices. In 1960, when India's population was around 436 million, the average woman had almost six children. Access to reproductive healthcare and education was limited, with fewer than 1 in 4 using contraception[3] and only 50% attending primary school[3].
Today, however, women have more freedom and opportunities than their mothers and grandmothers did. While the average woman in India now has only two children, significant inequalities persist across regions, castes, and income groups.
As per the UNFPA, India falls within a group of middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic change, with a population doubling time of 79 years[5]. The UN representative for India, Andrea M Wojnar, emphasized the need for promoting reproductive rights and empowering women to make informed reproductive choices as a means to economic prosperity[5].
Sources:
[1] UNFPA (2022). State of World Population 2022: Solutions within reach. New York: United Nations Population Fund.[2] World Bank (2022). DataBank: Total fertility rate, total (births per woman). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.[3] UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2022). Gender parity in primary, secondary and tertiary education index. Paris: UNESCO Institute for Statistics.[4] National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) (2022). India: Highlights. New Delhi: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.[5] UNFPA India Representative A.M. Wojnar, quoted by The Hindu, December 5, 2022.
- The UNFPA's 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled "The Real Fertility Crisis," delves into policy-and-legislation and politics, particularly focusing on reproductive rights and empowering women for economic prosperity.
- General-news reports on India's demographic trends often overlook the unmet reproductive goals as a key issue, highlighting the need for increased coverage and discussion on policy-and-legislation and politics related to reproductive health and family planning.
