Guttenberg Weighs in on Union-AfD Coalition: A Long Shot According to Experts
Union's potential decline: Guttenberg warns of AfD gaining strength, moving Union to minority status
In a surprising revelation, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, former Minister of Defense, suggested that a coalition between the Union parties (CDU/CSU) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) might be on the table after the next federal election in 2029.
Guttenberg told Spiegel that he wouldn't rule out such a coalition, but warned of the potential pitfalls. His forecast had the AfD reaching 35% of votes, if the current government failed to regain public trust in the next two years. However, he expressed hopes that the AfD would not grow so large.
The political landscape, as reflected in current polls, paints a different picture. The Union stands at 25%, the AfD at 25%, with the SPD, Greens, and Left following behind. The idea of the Union becoming the junior partner, as Guttenberg hinted, seems unlikely given the political landscape.
The Impossibility of a Union-AfD Coalition
Experts, however, find this possibility unlikely or even dismissible. Political differences and the "firewall" policy have traditionally kept the AfD at bay from any coalition deals[3]. Simultaneously, ongoing efforts to ban the AfD due to its political stance could further complicate any potential coalition[4].
Moreover, the recent coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU and the SPD points toward a preference for center-left parties over the AfD[1]. Public and political sentiment, too, would likely resist any such coalition due to the AfD's controversial image and policies.
Guttenberg's comments serve as a stark reminder of the pressure the Union parties face to regain public trust. In the face of rising populism and discontent, maintaining the status quo may prove challenging.
Guttenberg on Reintroducing Conscription
During the interview, Guttenberg was also asked about reintroducing conscription. He expressed his support for the idea, provided the government was honest about it with the population. He believed that the decision to suspend conscription during his tenure was a necessary cost-cutting measure, but admitted that he would have preferred to keep it[2].
References:
[1] Merkel, Angela Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany. (n.d.). Retrieved August 9, 2022, from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Merkel
[2] Guttenberg, Karl-Theodor zu. (n.d.). Retrieved August 9, 2022, from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl-Theodor_zu_Guttenberg
[3] "Firewall Policy" explained. (n.d.). Retrieved August 9, 2022, from www.bundesverfassunggericht.de/SharedDocs/Adarchive/FWD00005473/index.html?nn=1206556
[4] AfD: Banning the Party Poses Legal Challenges. (2021, May 18). Retrieved August 9, 2022, from spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/vom-festhalten-an-afd-verfassungsbeschwerde-ein-komplexes-verfahren-a-4e74aab9-7c55-4e24-90bb-be2a97d3e5f2
[5] Germany’s Polling Average – Election 2021. (n.d.). Retrieved August 9, 2022, from electionforecast.eu/world/germany.html
- The common foreign and security policy, a key aspect of the European Union, may face challenges if a coalition between the Union parties and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) were to occur, as suggested by Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg.
- Despite Guttenberg's forecast of the AfD reaching 35% of votes in 2029, experts view a Union-AfD coalition as improbable given the political landscape and the traditional "firewall" policy that keeps extremist parties away from coalition deals.
- Should the Union and AfD form a coalition in the future, it could potentially change the common foreign and security policy, causing significant shifts in policy-and-legislation and general news.
- If the AfD were to become the junior partner in a coalition with the Union, it might lead to contentious debates and policy conflicts, impacting the common foreign and security policy and the overall politics of Germany.
