"The Heat's On": Guttenberg: Union Could Potentially Partner with AfD at 35%
Union power potentially reduced to minority role as AfD triumphs with 35% support, according to Guttenberg
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, former minister, has hinted at a possible partnership between the Union parties and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the 2029 federal election. "I ain't ruling it out," he told Spiegel, even though he wishes otherwise.
According to Guttenberg's predictions, the AfD could snag 35% of the votes in the 2029 election if they fail to tackle the government's pressing issues within two years, causing a loss of public trust. He "doubts" the AfD will reach such proportions, but should they succeed, he believes the Union might be obligated to form a coalition, with the AfD potentially serving as the junior partner.
In the current polls, the AfD and Union parties both stand at 25%, with the SPD trailing by a 10-point gap (15%), followed by the Greens (12%) and Die Linke (10%). The BSW and FDP remain at 3% each.
Guttenberg Advocates for Honesty and Conscription Reconsideration
When questioned about reintroducing conscription, Guttenberg expressed his support, stating, "If you're being honest with the population, then yeah!" He believes the government should have reconsidered the suspension of conscription following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in both 2022 and 2014. He defends his decision to suspend conscription during his tenure, stating that economic constraints necessitated the move. If he could turn back the clock, he'd favor keeping conscription and a 100-billion special fund.
Potential Coalition Options for Union Parties
If the current poll trends continue, potential coalition options for the Union parties (CDU/CSU) are as follows:
- CDU/CSU and SPD Coalition: Following the 2025 election, the CDU/CSU and SPD have formed a coalition that could potentially continue, provided the polls remain favorable.
- CDU/CSU and Greens: While not impossible historically, partnering with the Greens is less likely with the current polling numbers.
- CDU/CSU and FDP: The FDP, traditionally a liberal ally of the CDU/CSU, is an uncertain partner given their current polling numbers.
- CDU/CSU and AfD: A partnership with the AfD is highly improbable due to significant ideological differences.
Guttenberg's Predictions for the Next Federal Election
At the time of writing, there is no specific information available regarding Guttenberg's predictions for the next German federal election. As a prominent figure in German politics, Guttenberg's views would likely prioritize maintaining a stable coalition capable of addressing critical issues like economic stability and European integration.
Source: ntv.de, mpa
Key Figures:
- Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg
- CDU
- CSU
- AfD
- German Bundestag
- Federal Government
[1] Enrichment Data: As of recent polls, the CDU/CSU is leading with about 25.7% of the vote, followed by AfD with 24.5%, SPD with 15.4%, Grüne with 11.6%, Die Linke with 10%, BSW with 3.8%, and FDP with 3.7%. (Source: [Information Not Provided])
[2] Enrichment Data: Significant ideological differences and the AfD's position on the political spectrum as a right-wing party make a partnership with them highly improbable. (Source: [Information Not Provided])
[3] Enrichment Data: Given the current polling numbers, partnering with the Greens (Grüne) is less probable without significant shifts in voter support. (Source: [Information Not Provided])
[4] Enrichment Data: The FDP is a traditional liberal partner for the CDU/CSU, but with the FDP polling below 5%, this coalition scenario is uncertain. (Source: [Information Not Provided])
[5] Enrichment Data: The CDU/CSU and SPD signed a coalition agreement following the 2025 election and may continue into the next election cycle. (Source: [Information Not Provided])
- Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, a former minister, suggests a potential partnership between the Union parties and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the 2029 federal election, should the AfD fail to address pressing issues within two years, claiming such a result could lead to the AfD capturing 35% of the votes.
- If the current polling trends continue, the Union parties may explore coalition options such as partnering with the SPD, Greens, FDP, or AfD. However, a coalition with the AfD is currently deemed highly improbable due to significant ideological differences.
- Guttenberg expressed support for reintroducing conscription and reconsidering its suspension following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in both 2022 and 2014, citing economic constraints as his reason for its suspension during his tenure.
- In the 2029 federal election, there is no specific information available regarding Guttenberg's predictions. Still, as a prominent figure in German politics, his views would likely prioritize the formation of a stable coalition capable of addressing critical issues like economic stability and European integration.
