Keeping Their Fingers Crossed: Guttenberg Ponders Union-AfD Coalition Possibilities
Union potential minority partner with AfD, according to Guttenberg, at 35% support
In a candid conversation with Spiegel, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, former minister for economics and defense, hinted at a potential partnership between the Union parties and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) following the next federal election. "I'm not closing the door on it," he declared.
According to Guttenberg's forecast, the AfD could garner up to 35% of the votes in the 2029 election if the current government fails to address pressing issues and regain public trust within two years [1]. However, he expressed his hope that the AfD would not gain such significant momentum.
When asked about the potential implications of this 35% scenario, Guttenberg added, "In such a case, an exclusion of the AfD in 2029 can't be ruled out given the then-active political players." He admitted that, in a situation where the Union parties become the junior partner, the coming years will be crucial for steering clear of that fate. "The pressure is on," he warned. "These two years will be decisive. I believe the public's patience won't last longer than two years."
Current polls show the AfD and the Union parties both holding onto 25% of the vote, with the SPD trailing by 10 percentage points (15%), followed by the Greens (12%) and the Left (10%). Meanwhile, the BSW and FDP hover around 3% each [1].
Guttenberg on Conscription: Honesty with the Population is Key
During the interview, Guttenberg was also queried regarding the reintroduction of conscription. He frankly responded, "Yes, given an honest conversation with the public on the matter." He went on to state that the decision to suspend conscription under his tenure was largely driven by financial concerns [1]. However, he admitted that, looking back, he would have preferred to keep conscription in place, though a special 100-billion-euro fund would have made the choice easier for him [1].
Sources:- ntv.de- mpa
- Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg
- CDU
- CSU
- AfD
- German Bundestag
- Federal Government
- The potential for a coalition between the Union parties (CDU, CSU) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the 2029 German Bundestag election, as suggested by Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, could see the AfD gaining up to 35% of the votes, leading to discussions about the possibility of an exclusion of the AfD in 2029, given the political landscape at that time.
- Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, in his conversation with Spiegel, acknowledged the importance of an open dialogue with the public about reinstating conscription, stating that such a decision was suspended due to financial considerations during his tenure.
- In the current polling landscape, the AfD and the Union parties (CDU, CSU) are both holding onto approximately 25% of the vote, with the SPD trailing by 10 percentage points (15%), followed by the Greens (12%) and the Left (10%).
- Guttenberg's proposed scenario of the AfD garnering 35% of the votes in the 2029 election underscores the significance of the current government addressing pressing issues and rebuilding public trust within the next two years to avoid a debacle in community politics (German domestic and foreign policy) and war-and-conflicts, as well as general news, during that period.
