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In the political landscape of Germany, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc maintains a lead, but the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is gaining significant ground. According to recent polls, the CDU/CSU holds around 27–31% support, while the AfD is polling at approximately 23–24%.
The Social Democrats (SPD), currently the junior coalition partner under Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government, have suffered significant losses and are polling at about 13–14%. The Greens and Die Linke hold around 10–12% each, while smaller parties including the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and The Left (BSW) are below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
In parliamentary seat terms, the CDU/CSU currently commands about 194 seats (30.8%), AfD 176 seats (27.9%), SPD 102 seats (16.2%), Greens 82 (13%), and Die Linke 76 (12.1%). A majority government requires at least 316 seats.
The traditional "grand coalition" (CDU/CSU + SPD) remains a possibility, but its numerical strength has been reduced due to SPD losses. A governing coalition still hinges on CDU/CSU support, but with AfD as a growing far-right force, mainstream parties continue to exclude it from formal coalitions due to its extremist stance.
A "Jamaica" coalition (CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP) is currently unlikely as FDP is polling below 5%, risking exclusion from parliament. The Left and Greens are currently too weak in combination to form a majority with SPD alone, especially without FDP’s participation. Alternative coalitions involving AfD are not considered viable by most other parties due to ideological and security concerns.
The results of the poll leave open the question of which realistic majorities will be possible in the future. The AfD, led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, continues to present itself as a winner in the polls, reaching 25% in the new INSA Sunday trend, equaling its previous record. The FDP has 3% of the votes, and the BSW has 4%.
Experts attribute the poor numbers of the ruling parties to the coalition dispute over pensions and taxes. A coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD falls short of the necessary 44% for a governing majority, reaching only 42%. A coalition of CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens is theoretically possible but challenging to implement. The SPD continues to stagnate at 15%, while The Left stays at 10%.
The poll data is from a survey of 1203 eligible voters by the INSA polling institute from July 28 to August 1. The Greens remain unchanged at 11%. Established parties make little progress in the polls compared to the AfD. The maximum margin of error for the poll is ± 2.9%.
This article was partly created with machine assistance and was carefully checked by the editorial team before publication.
The political debate in Germany is increasingly revolving around policy-and-legislation, with the conservative CDU/CSU and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) leading in general-news discussions. Despite the CDU/CSU maintaining a lead with around 27–31% support, the AfD is gaining ground, polling at approximately 23–25%.
