Unexpected decline in German exports towards Iran reported
In the first half of 2025, trade between Germany and Iran has witnessed a significant decline, with the total trade volume dropping by about 16% compared to the same period in 2024. This decrease is evident in German exports to Iran, which fell by 18%, while Iranian exports to Germany decreased slightly by 2% overall.
According to a joint letter from the E3 (Germany, France, and the UK) to UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the UN Security Council, German exports to Iran have plummeted by more than a sixth. These exports, which make up about a third of Germany's deliveries to Iran, have been on a downward trend since the renewed tensions over Iran’s nuclear activities.
The Financial Times reported a letter aiming to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb, with Germany, France, and the UK signaling their readiness to trigger sanctions through the UN if Tehran fails to provide adequate safeguards for its nuclear program by late August 2025.
The composition of German exports has shifted from machinery and transport equipment towards chemicals and related products. Iranian exports to Germany continue to be dominated by food and live animals. The Iranian UN mission did not respond to a request for a statement on the letter.
The European Union as a whole has seen an 18% decline in trade with Iran, with Germany remaining the EU's top trading partner with Iran. The overall reduction in trade is linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions around Iran’s nuclear program.
Experts and officials from Germany view the Iranian nuclear program as a persistent threat that can be rebuilt quickly despite existing strikes and sanctions, emphasizing that only a fundamental regime change within Iran could ensure lasting peace and halt nuclear ambitions. Past efforts like the JCPOA have failed largely due to enforcement gaps and Iranian strategic duplicity.
The decline in trade between Germany and Iran is not without criticism. Israel, in particular, has been vocal in its criticism of German trade with Iran, with Israel's ambassador to Germany, Ron Prosor, stating that "Iran is not a normal trading partner." Critics argue that for every euro that flows into the hands of the Iranian government, 50 cents come back as terrorism.
In June, Israel attacked Iranian nuclear and military facilities, and the USA also bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. Despite these attacks, the Iranian nuclear program remains a concern for Western countries, leading to the threat of new sanctions if negotiations with Iran fail.
In summary, German-Iranian trade is active but diminished amid geopolitical strain, with potential new sanctions looming due to Iran’s nuclear program concerns. Germany's stance is cautious but firm, balancing ongoing economic relations with preparedness to reimpose sanctions if Iran does not comply with nuclear safeguards.
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