Understanding NBA Props: An Analysis of Individual Player Wagers
Rewritten Article:
By Luke Johnson, February 18, 2025
NBA prop betting is the hottest trend in basketball fandom, transforming watching a game into an electrifying, nerve-wracking experience! Instead of merely observing the action, your heart races as you wait for every shots, rebound, or pass, hoping your predictions come true! Each play matters, and it's all because of prop bets!
If conventional betting like moneyline wagers doesn't cut it for you, prop bets are your ticket to a thrilling ride. These bets let you wager on a multitude of events during an NBA match. Three-point shots, points, steals, blocks, and much more—the choice is yours!
Let's delve deeper into NBA prop betting.
What are NBA Prop Bets?
NBA prop bets are gambles on a series of different events within a solitary NBA match. They serve as an exhilarating way to be more involved in the game, betting on specific actions of a player or team.
It's important to note that prop bets are not connected to the winner or loser of a game. So, they have no links to your traditional point spread, moneyline, or totals (over/under) bets on NBA matches[1][3].
Three primary types of prop bets exist: team props, game props, and player props.
NBA Player Props
Player props are the largest and most popular category of basketball bets, enabling you to bet on various aspects of a player's performance during an NBA game[3]. Essentially, you're predicting how you think an individual player will perform in terms of their in-game stats[4]. Generally, NBA player prop bets are a guess on whether a player goes over or under an offensive or defensive statistic or if the player will be involved in a particular event or not[5].
The odds for player prop bets, like basketball bets, are influenced by factors such as the quality of the player, past performances, and current form[3]. Consequently, LeBron will always have shorter odds than lesser-known athletes in the league[5].
An essential rule to remember is that a player must play in the game for the bet to be graded[4]. If something happens and a player is forced to sit before the game begins, your wager will be labeled a push, and you'll receive your money back[4][5]. However, make sure to read the terms and conditions of your chosen sportsbook to ensure this is the case[5].
Popular player prop combinations include:
Combined Points Scored & Stats Props
There are numerous variations and combinations of points scored props available. Some examples include rebounds and points props, where you can wager on the total number of rebounds and points a player accumulates during a single match[2][5].
For instance, consider a bet on Nikola Jokic, +/- 49.5 points, rebounds, and assists[5]. If you choose the over, Jokic could score 40 points, grab 5 rebounds, and record 5 assists (for a total of 50 points across the three metrics) and you'd win[5]. The objective is to reach that 50-point mark and hit the over, with victory being yours.
Usual stats used for these types of bets include points, rebounds, assists, and blocks[5]. The manner in which a player achieves the combined total doesn't matter, simply the sum of the final total[2][5]. Be creative with NBA player props, just remember to check the sportsbook's terms and conditions[5].
Points Scored Props
These are the most common NBA prop bets, perhaps because they're the simplest. You're simply wagering on whether you think a player will score above or below a specified number of points[5].
Sportsbooks provide a range of different point totals, including over 25, 30, 35, etc.—odds are assigned next to each player to hit that target[5].
Double-Doubles & Triple-Doubles
Player props also grant you the opportunity to wager on whether you believe a player will record a double-double (a situation where a player achieves 10 or more in two categories of steals, assists, points, rebounds, or blocked shots)[3]. Additionally, you have the chance to bet on a player securing a triple-double (10 or more in three of the aforementioned categories)[3]. This is a yes/no bet with the odds reflecting the likelihood of the player achieving this or not[5].
Three-Pointer Props
Three-pointer props are straightforward. They permit you to place a wager on the amount of three-point shots a player makes or misses during a single game[3]. With these props, you're wagering on the number of three-pointers a player hits, not the points scored from such shots[3]. Only the bigger-name players will be listed for these props.
Defensive Props
Many tend to focus on offense in sports, considering it more exciting[4]. However, defense wins championships, and with NBA props, you can wager on the number of blocks or steals a player records during a match[5]. Sportsbooks also offer props for these statistics combined[5]. The same rules apply for the offensive combined props mentioned above[5].
NBA Team Props
Although the focus has been on NBA player props, we thought it relevant to discuss NBA team props, too. They work in much the same fashion as player props, but they look at the overall team achievements instead of a player[3]. The odds reflect the team's standing as either the favorite or underdog heading into the game[3].
Team props allow you to wager on the overall points a team scores in a match (e.g., the Dallas Mavericks going over or under 230 points)[3]. In this case, if you bet the over, you'll win if the Mavs score 231 points. Team props also encompass other common in-game stats, like the total number of three-point shots a team nets during a game[3].
With team props, you're not banking on one player's performance but rather hoping the team you've selected can achieve their targets, irrespective of which players contribute towards that[3].
Strategies for NBA Prop Betting
Despite not being as well-known relative to moneyline or spread bets, prop bets deserve your attention[5]. Here are some tactics to consider as part of your NBA prop wagering strategy:
Research is Vital
Prop betting necessitates staying abreast of the latest news and information concerning teams and players across the NBA[5]. While you may have favorite programs or podcasts, diversify your sources for gaining a wide array of perspectives[5]. Opposing opinions can provide essential insights to enhance your decision-making[5].
Ultimately, you're cultivating knowledge and might discover peculiar quirks about a player or team prior to a match that may impact your bet[4].
Learn about the Statistics & Categories
The NBA boasts a plethora of numbers and stats, which can be overwhelming[5]. A sensible approach is to initially focus on a specific category when examining stats before expanding your prop bet arsenal[5]. For example, it's insightful to know which teams or players excel at making three-pointers, so you can accurately predict those totals instead of focusing on the winners and losers of every game[5].
Once you grasp the basics, you can then add to your prop bets[5].
Discover Value in Prop Bets
Oddsmakers are very skilled at their craft, but they can't craft infallible lines due to the myriad markets they cover[5]. The odds for prop bets are generated based on the statistical profiles of individual players. So, if you undertake thorough research, you may find handsome profit opportunities where an odds maker may not have accurately assessed a player's ability to achieve a specific number of assists or other stats[1].
Embrace the Excitement of NBA Props
Prop bets are inherently thrilling because of their nature. While you could place a straightforward over/under wager on an NBA game, why not investigate how a player performs to elevate the excitement levels? Furthermore, they can be exceptionally rewarding if you apply our strategies[5].
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Luke Johnson is a seasoned sports writer with extensive experience covering major events such as the Super Bowl and Soccer World Cup [5]. His extensive experience in the sports betting industry has provided him with a profound understanding of the best wager types for various sports and maximizing sportsbook experiences on any platform. Passionate about sports, Luke's writing is characterized by his expertise in critically analyzing and reviewing sportsbooks, mastering bonuses, promotions, and wagering requirements to facilitate informed betting decisions.
[1] Sports Betting Dime. (2022, December 15). How to bet on NBA prop bets. Retrieved February 18, 2025, from https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nba/betting/how-to-bet-on-nba-prop-bets/
[2] Bettors Guide. (n.d.). Pro basketball betting: NBA team defensive totals. Retrieved February 18, 2025, from https://www.bettorsguide.com/nba/betting_guides/point-spread/defensive-totals/
[3] CoachMac. (2023, February 17). Game Prop Bets for NBA. Retrieved February 18, 2025, from https://betting.coachmac.com/nba-game-prop-bets/
[4] MyBookie. (n.d.). NBA Player Props. Retrieved February 18, 2025, from https://www.mybookie.ag/sports/nba/nba-player-props/
[5] Covers.com. (2022, December 28). NBA Prop Bets explained. Retrieved February 18, 2025, from https://www.covers.com/betting/content/nba-prop-bets-explained.html
Sports prop betting in NBA matches, such as predicting the number of three-point shots made by LeBron James or the total rebounds and assists accumulated by Nikola Jokic, increases excitement among basketball fans. Unlike traditional bets on winner or loser, prop bets allow gamblers to wager on various player or team events.
Player prop bets allow you to predict an individual athlete's performance, including the over/under points scored, double-doubles, or triple-doubles. Bettors can also wager on team props like the total points scored by the Dallas Mavericks or the number of three-point shots made by the entire team.
Strategies such as thorough research, understanding basketball statistics, and discovering value in less-obvious betting lines can help maximize potential winnings in NBA prop betting.
