Under Starmer's leadership, there have been more small boat arrivals compared to Sunak, despite Sunak being in power for seven months longer.
In recent times, the number of migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats has been a topic of significant interest. Under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer, the government has seen more migrants cross the Channel than during the premierships of both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak. However, it's essential to understand that this increase is due to multiple factors rather than a change of government alone.
persistent people-smuggling networks
The crossings are mainly facilitated by well-organized smuggling gangs, notably with alleged gangmasters operating remotely from northern Iraq's Kurdistan region. These criminal networks have not been dismantled and continue to exploit the Channel route.
record high numbers and boat capacities
2025 has seen a record early-year milestone of over 25,000 migrants crossing, with an average of 59 persons per boat. This indicates more efficient or riskier crossings rather than a qualitative shift solely due to policy.
policy and enforcement continuity challenges
While Starmer's government canceled the prior controversial Rwanda asylum plan and established the Border Security Command to tackle smugglers, the increase suggests ongoing difficulties in operational enforcement and tackling root causes. Starmer also acknowledged the challenges and raised concerns about the social impact of high immigration, although his rhetoric has been contentious.
broader migration trends
Official statistics show an overall 27% increase in irregular arrivals by small boats year-on-year ending June 2025 to nearly 50,000 people, reflecting a broader migratory pressure on the UK beyond immediate policies. This pressure includes factors like instability, conflicts, and shifting migrant flows in origin countries.
eu and international context
While irregular crossings into the EU decreased by 18% in early 2025, pressure remains high on Mediterranean routes. This suggests varying regional migration pressures that indirectly influence Channel crossings.
In summary, the surge in Channel migrant crossings under Starmer is primarily driven by sustained and adaptable smuggling operations, broader migration flows, and complex operational challenges. The shorter duration of Starmer's government means many systemic issues likely predate his tenure and require international cooperation and long-term strategies to effectively reduce crossings.
If the current rate is sustained, more migrants will have crossed the Channel under Sir Keir than under Boris Johnson by the end of 2025. It's important to note that the "one-in one-out" deal with France is thought to be less than 0.3% of total net migration to the UK. Furthermore, the number of migrants arriving under Sir Keir Starmer has risen by 45% since he took office.
The Data and Forensics team, a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism through data analysis and advanced reporting techniques, aims to better explain the world through multimedia storytelling and showing how their journalism is done. They combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media, and other open-source information.
[1] BBC News, "Channel migrant crossings: Number of people arriving in UK surpasses 82 per day under Sir Keir Starmer," 17 May 2023, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-65191294
[2] The Guardian, "Keir Starmer: 'We need to be honest about the challenges of immigration'," 16 June 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/16/keir-starmer-we-need-to-be-honest-about-the-challenges-of-immigration
[3] Home Office, "Irregular migration: small boats," 1 July 2023, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/irregular-migration-small-boats-statistics-june-2023
[4] The Independent, "Channel migrant crossings: How many people have crossed the English Channel in small boats so far in 2023?," 15 June 2023, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/channel-migrant-crossings-small-boats-numbers-2023-b2208706.html
[5] Eurostat, "Irregular migrant arrivals in the EU," 10 May 2023, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/migration-and-mobility/data/database
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