Uncontrollable escalation: Putin pushes boundaries yet again
Things are looking up for Russia on the global stage. With a change in power in the US, Russia has been given a second chance to play a significant role in world politics. However, it seems the Kremlin can't help but overplay its hand, writes Erkki Koort, security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences.
Russia's re-emergence is not just a coincidence, but a strategic move that benefits from shifting geopolitical priorities and targeted disinformation campaigns. The new US administration has changed the game, particularly in relation to Ukraine. The Trump administration has blamed Kyiv for the war, excluded it from negotiations, and legitimized Putin’s claims about Ukraine’s “Nazism” and Zelensky’s alleged illegitimacy – all of which have emboldened Moscow’s narrative control and weakened unified Western pressure.
Moscow uses misdirection as the backbone of its engagement strategy. At home, Putin uses the war as a pretext to justify repression, consolidate power, and mobilize the economy. Abroad, Russia deepens partnerships with China, Iran, and North Korea, while using organizations like BRICS to create the illusion of a powerful anti-Western coalition. Yet, collaboration remains primarily bilateral.
This policy reversal in the US has also given Russia the opportunity to exploit divisions within the Global South. By framing the Ukraine conflict as a proxy war against US hegemony, Russia finds support among non-aligned states wary of Western dominance. At the same time, Russia manipulates Trump’s rhetoric about Ukrainian “dictatorship” and war guilt to reinforce its victimhood narrative, obscuring its territorial ambitions. This strategic ambiguity makes it difficult for the West to isolate Russia, as sanctions lose their effectiveness without consistent transatlantic enforcement.
As a result, the world order becomes fragmented, and Moscow takes advantage of limited concessions and symbolic alliances to project renewed influence. It seems the Kremlin could learn a lesson or two about the perils of overdoing it and to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.
The Kremlin's strategy in the global political arena has been subject to scrutiny, as it appears to overplay its hand, leveraging the Ukraine conflict to justify repression domestically and project influence abroad. Russia utilizes this conflict as a proxy war against perceived US hegemony, finding support among non-aligned states weary of Western dominance, while simultaneously manipulating political rhetoric to reinforce its victimhood narrative. This strategic ambiguity poses challenges for the West, as sanctions lose effectiveness without consistent transatlantic enforcement, resulting in a fragmented world order and renewed Russian influence. To avoid repeating past mistakes, the Kremlin might benefit from reevaluating its approach to isolation and politics in war-and-conflicts, policy-and-legislation, general-news, and beyond.
