Uncommon partnership formed by Egypt and Iran amidst shifting political backdrop
In a move that could redefine the Middle East's political landscape, Egypt and Iran are forging an alliance that seeks to counter Israeli regional dominance and stabilise Red Sea security, among other objectives.
The partnership aims to stymie Israel’s pursuit of domination in a violent regional landscape, presenting a united front against Israeli military and political initiatives. Egypt heavily depends on the Suez Canal for economic reasons, and Iran’s influence over the Houthi rebels, who disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, provides Cairo with diplomatic leverage to push for maritime corridor stability, crucial for global trade and Egypt’s economy.
For Iran, improving relations with Egypt—a major Arab country and longstanding U.S. ally—helps mitigate Tehran’s diplomatic isolation caused by Western sanctions and military pressure, particularly from Israel and the U.S. This also allows Iran to regain footholds in a shifting regional order.
Both countries back rival factions in Sudan’s civil war, creating a shared strategic interest on Egypt’s southern border and an area for cooperation and influence peddling. With China brokering the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, Egypt can engage Iran without antagonizing Gulf states that had been barriers to normalization, facilitating a more diversified regional alliance strategy.
Economic cooperation is another focus, with Egypt and Iran facing economic constraints. They are exploring cooperation in trade and religious tourism, tapping into mutual religious heritage and commercial interests as tangible benefits beyond diplomacy. Egypt stands to benefit from Iran's drone technology and is looking to a sanctions-free Iran as a potential reliable source of oil and gas to meet its growing population's needs.
Egypt is positioning itself to mediate between Iran and Western powers in the stalled nuclear talks, using its unique position of warm ties with both Tehran and Western actors to enhance its regional stature. The potential outcomes of this alliance could include a reshaped regional geopolitical map, reduced Israeli and U.S. unilateral maneuvering in regional conflicts, improved security and economic conditions in the Red Sea corridor, increased Egyptian influence in nuclear diplomacy, and new dynamics in Sudan and the Horn of Africa.
However, the alliance is placing Egypt in a delicate position, as it must ensure its relations with Iran bring about improved ties between Tehran and its Arab neighbors in the Gulf. Egypt's relations with Israel are at their lowest ebb in decades over the Gaza war, and officials in both countries have adopted sabre-rattling rhetoric. Egypt's Foreign Minister, Badr Abdelatty, has stated that it is not acceptable to allow any single party to dominate the region or to engineer its restructuring, a clear reference to Israel.
The alliance between Egypt and Iran represents a pragmatic, strategic realignment driven by shared security challenges, economic pressures, and shifting regional power structures. It remains to be seen how this alliance will evolve and what long-term implications it will have on the Middle East's political landscape and balance of power between key regional actors.
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