Uncertain future following Iran-Israel confrontation: Will the conflict escalate or resolve through diplomacy?
In a bold move, Israel intends to eliminate Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile production capabilities, potentially causing a seismic shift in the Middle East. The Israeli government has made it clear that this isn't just about dismantling Iran's atomic ambitions; it's about regime change.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, hasn't ruled out eliminating Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, though a US official claims that President Donald Trump has vetoed this option. Israel's intelligence service, known for its deep infiltration of Iran, has already taken out several key figures, including the head of the Revolutionary Guards and armed forces.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank, believes this could lead to an "unraveling over time" rather than an immediate transformation. The Israeli action, according to Vakil, serves to "decapitate the leadership of the Islamic republic and degrade the nuclear and broader capabilities of the regime."
However, replacing Khamenei with a more moderate leader is far from guaranteed. Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy at Eurasia Group, suggests that a new supreme leader might be even more hardline and pose a greater danger to Israel. The risks of further escalation are real, analysts warn.
Diplomacy, meanwhile, remains at a standstill as Israel bombs Iranian targets and Iran retaliates. The fear of a wider, prolonged conflict looms large.
Even if a new leadership emerges in Iran, it will face significant challenges. Israel's operations have severely degraded Iran's ability to cause regional mayhem through its proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. However, Tehran still supports the Huthi rebels in Yemen, who have attacked Gulf shipping, and can strike energy facilities or conduct cyberattacks.
The future of any diplomatic progress lies with the United States and Trump, who has so far resisted Israeli pressure to become directly involved in the conflict. Analysts believe Trump may stand back and let Israel continue weakening Iran, forcing it to negotiate in a weaker position. However, Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, argues that Israel would be unable to wipe out the Iranian nuclear program even in a prolonged conflict. A diplomatic settlement, Vaez suggests, is the best way for Trump to avoid both a nuclear Iran and a protracted military entanglement.
- The ongoing conflict and potential war-and-conflicts between Israel and Iran, centered around Israel's goal to eliminate Iran's nuclear program and missile production capabilities, is causing a significant shift in politics, leading to a general analysis of the potential outcomes and risks of further escalation.
- As the Israeli government continues its actions against Iran, including eliminating key figures and potentially targeting the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, there is a growing concern about the impact on the Middle East, with the possibility of conflict lasting over time and creating unforeseen consequences that require careful political analysis.
