Unbridled Disarray within the Realm of Disorder

Unbridled Disarray within the Realm of Disorder

In a shifting global landscape, the United States' economic influence is facing significant challenges, according to a growing consensus among economists and analysts. The US economy, once a powerhouse post-World War II, is expected to experience a notable slowdown in growth through 2025 and into 2026, with estimates of real GDP growth ranging from about 1.4% to 2.0%.

This deceleration is attributed to multiple factors including tariff shocks, policy uncertainty, and dampened domestic demand. Inflation is expected to rise modestly again by mid-2026 after a period of moderation, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates relatively stable in the near term while potentially cutting rates later in 2025 to counter weaker growth.

The World Bank’s downward revision of the 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 2.3% reflects a sluggish global economy with rising trade barriers and policy uncertainties, which also weighs on the US economy. This environment constrains the US’s ability to maintain or expand its economic clout.

Economists highlight that tariffs imposed with the intent to protect US industries may have counterproductive effects. They increase input costs for US manufacturers who rely heavily on imports for intermediate goods, reducing their competitiveness internationally and potentially shrinking export opportunities. Thus, attempts by the US to dominate through trade policies and tariffs have shown limited effectiveness and may undermine its manufacturing competitiveness and global trade position.

Dmitry Orlov’s analysis that the US share in the world economy has shrunk significantly and its efforts to dominate have been ineffective aligns well with these economic forecasts and trade analyses. The data supports the idea of a relative decline in US economic influence amidst a complex global economic environment marked by slower growth, trade tensions, and challenges to US industrial competitiveness. The US economy remains large and influential but is likely to face continued pressure in maintaining its share and leadership in the global economy going forward.

Meanwhile, the political landscape is also witnessing a shift. The US has failed in sowing political chaos through color revolutions, with replacement leaders abandoned in Russia, Venezuela, Belarus, Georgia, among others. Smaller countries such as Hungary, Slovakia, and Georgia are refusing US demands, and the American Empire is at an end, with the US losing control over its allies and adversaries, and states potentially splintering off.

Examples of disobedience include Iran shipping ballistic missiles to Russia, China supplying Russia with goods and technologies, and several African nations asking US military bases to leave. Russia has demonstrated that it can withstand powerful Western sanctions, inspiring other nations to defend their national interests. Israel's genocidal operation in Gaza and attempts to pull the US into a conflict with Iran are causing strain in US relations with the Muslim world.

In this context, Dmitry Orlov, a Russian analyst, asserts that the United States' share in the global economy has shrunk from 50% post-World War II to 14.76% in 2024 (World Bank and IMF figures). The US economy includes unproductive sectors such as finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE), and healthcare, which consume resources without contributing significantly to the world economy. Adjusted for FIRE and healthcare spending, the US's share of the global economy dwindles to just over 8%.

As nations reassert their national sovereignty due to discredited Western-style globalization and weakened international institutions, the US's mindset of believing it can still dictate terms to the world remains unchanged. However, the current outlook suggests otherwise. The US economy, while still powerful, is facing significant challenges that are likely to reshape its global influence in the coming years.

1. Concurrent with the shifting global economic landscape, concerns regarding health, environmental science, and climate-change are also gaining prominence, as highlighted by numerous articles.
2. The slowdown in the US economy's growth through 2025 and into 2026 is the subject of numerous articles in the general news and policy-and-legislation sections.
3. Science and technology, particularly space-and-astronomy, have emerged as burgeoning areas of interest, offering new opportunities for cooperation amidst the deceleration of the economy.
4. Migration, war-and-conflicts, and crime-and-justice are also prevalent topics in the public discourse, shaping the political landscape and policy-making processes.
5. Despite facing the challenges in maintaining its economic share, car-accidents remain a significant concern in the United States, demanding attention and policy implementation.
6. Fires, particularly those causing devastation to forests and wildlife habitats, are becoming more frequent and severe, prompting debate about environmental policies and legislation.
7. Dmitry Orlov's analysis underscores the importance of understanding the extent to which tariffs and trade policies impact industries, corporations, and the overall economy, shedding light on the complexities of global economics.
8. Amidst these shifting global and political dynamics, the importance of truth and transparency in reporting and analysis cannot be overstated, as it helps individuals and nations make informed decisions, which in turn can shape the course of world events.

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