Unaware Kremlin Actions: Unintentionally Siding with Ukraine's Agenda
In the long run, this could potentially trigger an internal collapse in Russia.
Vladimir Putin seems hell-bent on blocking any peaceful dialogue and continuing the war against Ukraine, aiming to gradually annex new territories. The Kremlin's regime relies on the assumption that Ukrainian society will tire, the economy will crumble, and Kyiv will eventually surrender. However, as Alexander Motyl, a political scientist at Rutgers University, suggests, delay may work to Ukraine's advantage, especially considering the disparities in population, economy, and military strength.
Although Russia has a much larger population, economy, and military-industrial complex compared to Ukraine, Motyl argues that raw numbers do not guarantee victory. For instance, the U.S. lost in Vietnam, and France was defeated in Algeria, showing that leadership, morale, strategy, tactics, and the quality of weaponry can overcome significant numerical disparities.
Other experts, such as Collin Mylz and Matthew Barrows, suggest that Russia can afford to lose soldiers at a rate three times higher than Ukraine and still incur fewer overall losses. Yet, Motyl emphasizes that these numbers don't tell the entire story.
Ukraine's key advantage lies in its ability to systematically inflict more damage on the enemy than Russia can recruit. Specifically, Ukraine is eliminating 20,000 Russian soldiers each month while adding 30-32,000 new troops. To maintain the momentum, it is needed to boost the effectiveness of drone units or improve the efficiency of existing ones. If the hit rate increases by just 15%, it could push Russian losses to approximately 35,000 per month by August.
If the analysis by Motyl, Maisel, Berrous, and Browdy is correct, even a stalemate in the war would be considered a victory for Ukraine, considering the initial imbalance. In the best-case scenario, it could mark the start of the downfall of the Russian state machine and a significant Ukrainian victory.
Does Putin risk biting off more than he can chew as the war continues? Let's hope so for the sake of Ukraine and the entire world.
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1) The ongoing war against Ukraine, as suggested by Alexander Motyl, could potentially lead to a significant Ukrainian victory and a downfall of the Russian state machine, which might be more than Vladimir Putin can handle considering the disparities in population, economy, and military strength.2) Furthermore, politics and policy-and-legislation, especially in the context of war-and-conflicts, need to be carefully examined to understand if Putin's continued aggression against Ukraine will eventually lead to Russia's internal collapse, as general-news reports have been suggesting.
