Unanticipated cold snap replaces predicted heatwave during German summer
A potential "Vb" weather situation is developing over Germany, posing a significant risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the coming days. This meteorological pattern, first coined by German meteorologist Wilhelm Jacob van Bebber in 1891, involves a low-pressure system moving from the Mediterranean Sea northwards into Central Europe, often bringing moist and unstable air.
The implications for Germany's near-future rainfall are concerning. A Vb situation typically results in intense rainfall and thunderstorms that can stall over the same area, causing accumulations of rain that can exceed 1 to 3 inches (approximately 25 to 75 mm) within a short period. These weather patterns can produce flash floods due to heavy rain rates possibly reaching 2 inches per hour.
Authorities are monitoring the situation closely as these weather events pose a real threat of localized severe weather, flooding, and disruption to transport and daily life. In mid-July 2025, Europe, including Germany, has been experiencing warmer and slightly drier conditions overall, but thunderstorm activity with heavy localized rain is expected to increase, consistent with patterns that could evolve into Vb-like situations in the near future.
The German weather service (DWD) has issued wind warnings across the southern half of Germany and thunderstorm warnings in the west. Meteorologist Dominik Jung has warned about the possibility of dangerous rain events in the near future. Further storms and cool weather could move up from the south and southwest toward central parts of the country on Sunday night.
Particularly heavy rain is expected in the eastern half of northern Bavaria on Wednesday, with initial model calculations suggesting a potential 100 to 200 litres of rain per square metre could occur from the Alpine region to the Ore Mountains and up to the Baltic Sea. The areas potentially at risk include the Alpine region, Ore Mountains, and up to the Baltic Sea.
Residents and authorities in Germany should remain vigilant for sudden, intense rainstorms potentially linked to Vb scenarios in the days ahead, as these may bring localized flooding hazards despite the general warm and somewhat dry summer trend seen until now. The possibility of flooding in southern and eastern parts of Germany, similar to the events in June 2024, is a concern due to the current weather conditions.
Meteorologists will continue monitoring the situation over the coming days to determine the likelihood of a severe rain event. Conditions are expected to get gradually drier and warmer on Friday and Saturday, with isolated showers and brief thunderstorms continuing in the north-east but expected to have mostly cleared up by Saturday, potentially bringing sunny summer conditions.
Currently, Germany is experiencing severe storms in several regions, including Thuringia, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, Brandenburg, and southern Bavaria. The forecast for Thursday is to begin with heavy thunderstorms in the southeast in the early hours, followed by dry, partly cloudy conditions with high temperatures in the 18 to 24C range.
Stay tuned for updates as the situation develops. Safety is paramount, so it's crucial for everyone to stay informed and prepared.
Weather forecasting indicates a potential Vb weather situation over Germany, which could result in heavy rainfall and poses a risk of flash floods in the coming days. Authorities are monitoring the situation closely and have issued wind and thunderstorm warnings, with particular heavy rain expected in the eastern half of northern Bavaria.
