Ukraine needs to issue a warning to Lukashenko
In the coming months, Russia and Belarus are set to conduct joint military exercises, "Zapad-2025," in Belarus. This event has raised concerns among experts, particularly given the reported poor health of both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
According to Nataliya Radina, chief editor of Charter97.org, these exercises could potentially serve as a rehearsal for escalatory or provocative scenarios against Ukraine. One of the key threat scenarios indicated is the practice of planning nuclear weapon use and the deployment of nuclear-capable missile systems, such as the Oreshnik complex.
These missile systems are seen as strategic deterrence, but they could significantly escalate regional conflicts. The exercises may also involve joint readiness to respond to threats and conduct defensive and offensive operations, including air defense, repelling incursions, and combating sabotage.
Despite claims by Belarusian and Russian officials that the drills are defensive and not directly threatening Ukraine, the pattern from previous exercises, like Zapad-2021 preceding Russia's 2022 invasion, and the scale of troop participation raise concerns about military posturing and potential escalation or provocations near Ukraine’s borders.
Official Ukrainian authorities currently see no direct military threat from the drill location in Belarus but continue to monitor troop movements closely. However, experts like Radina warn that the drills could signal aggressive intentions, scenario rehearsals for escalated conflict involving nuclear threats, and potential provocations impacting Ukraine’s security environment.
Another potential threat scenario involves provocations against the Baltic states leading to fighting in the Kyiv region and missile strikes on the Volyn, Rivne, and Chernihiv regions. The war in Ukraine remains the main topic of conversations between Putin and Lukashenko, according to reports from Putin's press service.
In light of these concerns, Radina urges Kyiv to warn Lukashenko about the consequences of such provocations. She described the Putin-Lukashenko meeting on Valamo as revealing the leaders as "two crazy old men."
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The upcoming military exercises, "Zapad-2025," involving Russia and Belarus, have sparked concerns among experts, as they could potentially serve as rehearsals for escalatory or provocative scenarios against Ukraine, especially given the nuclear-capable missile systems like the Oreshnik complex that might be involved.
Moreover, experts warn that the drills could signal aggressive intentions, scenario rehearsals for escalated conflict involving nuclear threats, and potential provocations that could impact Ukraine’s security environment.
