UFC Fight in Kansas City: Betting Insights, Odds, and Possible Outcomes for Garry vs. Prates
Twitter Facebook Email## UFC Kansas City Predictions - Garry vs. Prates:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC Kansas City best bets and delves into his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the card.
BEST BETS HISTORY*Since 2020: 703-672 (+189.8 Units, 10.89% ROI)*
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**All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted**
Ian "The Future" Machado Garry (-162) vs Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates (+136)
Over 3.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 3.5 Rounds (-120)Welterweight
Ian Garry demonstrates an exceptional fight IQ, always ready to do whatever it takes to secure a victory. In his UFC debut, he promptly clinched a first-round knockout. With a record of 8-1 in the organization against a high-caliber schedule, he's known for his striking prowess but also showcases his ground control in his victory over Michael Venom Page. However, he stumbled in his last fight against the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov, losing via decision. A significant criticism levied against him is his unrefined persona, leaving some fans unimpressed by his pre- and post-fight antics. He's accurate as a striker, landing nearly five significant strikes per minute, while maintaining a solid defense, absorbing just 2.82 strikes in the octagon. Garry also possesses a sturdy chin, having been knocked down only once in the UFC. However, he's not consistently aggressive when it comes to head strikes.
Carlos Prates is rapidly climbing the UFC ranks, boasting a 4-0 record, all by way of knockouts. His astounding precision and power are evident, with a strike success rate of nearly 60% and an overwhelming nine victories in the first round. Prates' trademark cigarette smoking has even earned him a cult following, but his opponent's water-cooler banter may pale in comparison to his fearsome effectiveness in the octagon. Seven knockdowns in just four UFC fights suggest that both speed and power are at an elite level. Prates' takedown defense stands at an impressive 91%, making it unlikely that Garry will be able to secure significant ground time. However, the competition Prates has faced thus far has not been uniformly strong.
FIGHT WINNER: Ian Machado Garry
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Carlos Prates Under 57.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
Anthony Smith (+310) vs Zhang Mingyang (-395)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-180) Light Heavyweight
This fight is probable to mark the conclusion of Anthony Smith's career, with him carrying 24 octagon experiences and numerous high-profile matchups under his belt. His resume includes taking Jon Jones to the limit in a title fight, securing seven performance bonuses, and more. Despite recent setbacks, playing host to this event in Kansas City, where Smith hails from, could provide a noticeable boost. His versatility allows him to engage in various disciplines, but his grappling expertise is his most potent weapon.
Zhang Mingyang enters the contest with an immaculate 18-6 record as a professional, having secured 12 knockout victories and six submissions. He's notably dominant early in fights, with all his professional victories coming in the very first round, and seven of those was by way of knockout. His opposition in the UFC, though, is relatively weak, raising questions about his ability to perform against more seasoned opponents. Zhang is aggressive out of the gate, and it's doubtful he will fear Smith's punching power.
FIGHT WINNER: Mingyang Zhang
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Smith/Zhang Fight Not to Start Round 2 (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
Giga Chikadze (+164) vs David Onama (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145) Featherweight
This fight presents opportunities for both fighters, as Giga Chikadze returns from a missed weight cut, while David Onama seeks to boost his resume against a higher-ranked opponent. Chikadze, with a 7-2 record in the UFC, boasts impressive knockouts over veterans like Cub Swanson and Edson Barboza. Given his striking flair, he'll need to find his range and avoid being caught by Onama's power punches. Onama is a raw but promising fighter, utilizing his impressive strength, precision, and activity to wear down opponents. If he can close the distance and evade Chikadze's striking, he could find success in this contest.
FIGHT WINNER: Giga Chikadze
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Giga Chikadze (+170, Caesars) vs Onama, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.7 Units
Michel Pereira (+164) vs Abus Magomedov (-198)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-210) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+160) Middleweight
Michel Pereira's entertaining style is known for action from the opening bell, with various paths to victory. Despite grappling proficiency, Pereira's fitness has occasionally faltered, causing him to struggle to go the distance. Abus Magomedov, however, prides himself on his endurance, employing a more calculated approach after initial success on the feet. Magomedov climbed through a distinguished amateur career before making his UFC debut, securing two wins by knockout and two by decision. He showed patience in his most recent victory, getting past Bruno Ferreira in the third round. Pereira's aggressive style may lead to an early finish, but refined techniques from Magomedov put him in a good position to weather early storms and wait for his opportunity.
FIGHT WINNER: Michel Pereira
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Michel Pereira (-145, BetMGM) vs Magomedov, Risk 1.45 Units to Win 1
Randy Brown (-298) vs Nicolas Dalby (+240)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+240) Welterweight
Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby are both established UFC vets, with Brown having a 4-inch reach advantage and a 3.5-inch height differential. Brown's striking precision complements his solid ability to control distance, while Dalby is a warrior who can put opponents on the back foot and test their cardio. At age 40, Dalby's cardio might be in question, and Smith's experience should help him navigate Dalby's aggressive strategies. Significant limb length gives Brown an advantage in maintaining distance and executing submission attempts from unexpected positions.
FIGHT WINNER: Randy Brown
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Below
Ikram Aliskerov (-470) vs Andre Muniz (+360)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-120) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-110) Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov enters the contest with a 2-1 record in the UFC, having claimed first-round knockouts against Phil Hawes and Warlley Alves. However, when he stepped up to face Robert Whittaker, he was humbled in just one round. Andre Muniz, a skilled grappler, boasts six submission victories over his UFC career, albeit all in the first round. Aliskerov's grappling skills have not been tested at the UFC level yet, making this matchup intriguing. Muniz has the potential to pull off a submission win, but Aliskerov's raw talents and matured skillset give him the edge.
FIGHT WINNER: Ikram Aliskerov
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Alikserov/Muniz Under 1.5 Rounds (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1
Matt Schnell (-166) vs Jimmy Flick (+140)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-130) Flyweight
Matt Schnell is known for delivering exciting fights, but he's seldom on the right end of them. Entering this contest with a 6-7 record in the UFC, Schnell presented several opportunities, but ultimately fell short in four of his last five fights. His strength lies in grappling, but his willingness to strike often puts him at risk of being knocked out. Jimmy Flick is also a grappler, possessing a high-level appetite for submission attempts. Matches typically start on the feet, but Flick's ground game could play a crucial role in the early stages. Either fighter could potentially find a submission, but it's possible that the match ends in a barnburner fashion, with one fighter being knocked out.
FIGHT WINNER: Matt Schnell
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Schnell/Flick Fight Ends via Submission (+140), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4
Evan Elder (-205) vs Gauge Young (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190) Lightweight
Evan Elder is eager to make amends for his recent losses, entering the octagon against a UFC debutant. He boasts an 8-0 professional record and has yet to lose while serving as a favorite. With a well-rounded fighting style, he should present a difficult challenge for Young. Gauge Young, despite being six years younger, has not fought at the high level displayed by Elder. Winning his UFC debut and his two preceding regional contests, Young faces a steep learning curve against a battle-tested opponent. Young's aggressiveness could lead to an exciting fight, but Elder should be favored to earn a straightforward victory.
FIGHT WINNER: Evan Elder
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Parlay - Evan Elder/Randy Brown (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
Chris Gutierrez (-142) vs John Castaneda (+120)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-445) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+310) Featherweight
Chris Gutierrez struggles against opponents who boast decisive aggression and striking power. However, John Castaneda's striking is suspect, resulting in vulnerable defense that Gutierrez can exploit. Castaneda's primary path to victory is taking the fight to the ground early and often, but Gutierrez's excellent takedown defense should keep him free from grappling threats. Gutierrez is expected to win via decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Chris Gutierrez
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Chris Gutierrez (-142) vs Castaneda, Risk 1.42 Units to Win 1
Da'Mon Blackshear (-520) vs Alatengheili (+390)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120) Bantamweight
Da'Mon Blackshear is a formidable grappler, with an impressive record of 9-1 as a professional and a 3-1 mark in the UFC, which includes two submissions by armbar and one win by ground and pound. He is expected to have the upper hand in the octagon, facing a debutant with limited UFC experience. Alatengheli, while offering striking prowess, struggles on the mat, making him vulnerable to Blackshear's submission skills.
FIGHT WINNER: Da'Mon Blackshear
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Pass
Malcolm Wellmaker (-130) vs Cameron Saaiman (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+135) Bantamweight
Malcolm Wellmaker embarks on his UFC debut as an 8-0 professional, boasting a win by knockout in his Contender Series showcase. Wellmaker has demonstrated a penchant for knockouts, but his UFC opposition has thus far been underwhelming. Cameron Saaiman, on the other hand, flashes potential with aggressive striking and grappling prowess. Despite being six years younger, Saaiman has faced stiffer UFC competition, resulting in advantages like better-refined techniques and mental fortitude. Saaiman has suffered defeats, but he's shown heart and the capacity to learn from his mistakes.
FIGHT WINNER: Cameron Saaiman
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Cameron Saaiman (+110) vs Wellmaker, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
Jacqueline Amorim (-750) vs Polyana Viana (+525)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-120) Women's Flyweight
Jacqueline Amorim showcases exceptional grappling abilities, boasting a professional record of 9-1 and a 3-1 mark in the UFC, including three submission victories. Polyana Viana, who holds a 4-6 record in the UFC, has struggled in recent fights, culminating in back-to-back losses via submission. Viana's takedown defense has been called into question, and she is expected to encounter challenges early in the contest.
FIGHT WINNER: Jacqueline Amorim
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Pass
Timothy Cuamba (-115) vs Roberto Romero (-105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190) Featherweight
Timothy Cuamba has not left a positive impression in the UFC after a 0-2 start following a win in the Contender Series that wasn't immediately followed by a contract offer. His inferior skill set against more experienced opponents has raised questions about his potential in the organization. Roberto Romero, who lost his UFC debut in the Contender Series, has since redeemed himself with a victory over David Onama, displaying an aggressive striking style. Romero's suspect defense might encourage Cubamba to take risks, potentially leading to a finish in the first half of the contest.
FIGHT WINNER: Roberto Romero
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Pass
Chelsea Chandler (+225) vs Joselyne Edwards (-278)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-375) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+270) Women's Bantamweight
Chelsea Chandler, the underdog, comes into this bout with a 2-2 record in the UFC, despite being an underdog in every fight. Chandler's resume is boosted by a submission victory by ground-and-pound, but her willingness to stand and trade encourages opponents to capitalize on her susceptible striking defense. Joselyne Edwards, who holds a 5-4 record in the UFC, is the favorite due to her statistical edge in all major categories. Although Edwards has struggled with inconsistency, her victories have typically ended via decision, suggesting that a high-impact finish is not in the cards. Edwards will likely win by decision, but Chandler may offer a surprising split decision if she can find an opening.
FIGHT WINNER: Joselyne Edwards
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BET: Pass
UFC KANSAS CITY BEST BETS RECAP- Carlos Prates Under 57.5 Significant Strikes (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1- Smith/Zhang Fight Not to Start Round 2 (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1- Giga Chikadze (+170, Caesars) vs Onama, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.7 Units- Michel Pereira (-145, BetMGM) vs Magomedov, Risk 1.45 Units to Win 1- Alikserov/Munz Under 1.5 Rounds (-110), Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1- Schnell/Flick Fight Ends via Submission (+140), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.4- Evan Elder/Randy Brown (+100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1 Unit- Chris Gutierrez (-142) vs Castaneda, Risk 1.42 Units to Win 1- Cameron Saaiman (+110) vs Wellmaker, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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- Odds for the Kazakhstani fighter, Zhang Mingyang, to win by decision are priced at +333 (bet $100 to win $333). Additionally, one can place a wager on the fight between Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby having fewer than 1.5 rounds at +180 (bet $100 to win $180). In the undercard's welterweight bout between Michel Pereira and Abus Magomedov, the odds for a fight lasting over 1.5 rounds can be found at -210 (bet $210 to win $100).
