UFC Edge Towards TV Agreement, Rumored Desire for Yearly Revenue Exceeding $1 Billion
** Title: UFC 316 Preview: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley and UFC's Billion-Dollar Broadcast Rights Hunt**
Posted on: May 15, 2025, 03:44h.
Last updated on: May 15, 2025, 03:44h.
Join the Melee: Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley Lock Horns
On June 7, UFC 316 brings bantamweight powerhouses Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley to the Octagon at Prudential Center, Newark. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the UFC is in the thick of negotiations for a new broadcast rights deal, aiming for a cool billion a year[1].
Betting on the Beak: DraftKings odds
The UFC is all about personality and star power, and that's precisely what the broadcasters are chomping at the bit to embrace[1]. Dvalishvili currently edges O'Malley in the betting odds at -380 and +300, respectively[1].
UFC 316 also hosts a women's bantamweight title bout pitting reigning champ Julianna Pena against Kayla Harrison, with Harrison leading as the betting favorite at -575, while Pena is at +425[1].
A Lightweight Title Battle: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira in the Horizon
There's a storm brewing in the lightweight division; Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira are set to clash on June 28 at UFC 317 at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas for the lightweight title[1].
UFC CEO Dana White announced the date and location for Dricus du Plessis versus Khamzat Chimaev for the middleweight title at UFC 319 on Aug. 16 at the United Center in Chicago[1].
Topuria had his heart set on facing Islam Makhachev, the pound-for-pound men's top UFC fighter who vacated the lightweight title to chase another belt. But Makhachev is now targeting Jack Della Maddalena[1]. Topuria unleashed a bruising critique of Makhachev: "The fight everyone wanted to see. I was willing to do it. He is the biggest hypocrite I have ever seen[1]."
The Impact on the Betting Lines
Buzz, personality, and brashness are UFC's hallmarks - factors that will undoubtedly sway the new broadcast deal. Topuria takes the betting favorite role at -345, while Oliveira steps in at +275[1]. UFC 319 contenders Dricus du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev stand at -198 and +164, respectively[1].
From the betting world's perspective, controversy, excitement, and star power are what make UFC events tick. According to UK-based BetVictor trader Mark Collier, events without top-tier popularity are relatively quiet. The appearance of Paddy Pimblett, a fan favorite, would arguably boost numbers to match or even surpass non-active events like Jon Jones or Conor McGregor[3].
Topuria showcased higher betting numbers compared to past champions, particularly against Max Holloway. However, Collier believes these numbers may be attributed to Holloway as the opponent. When compared to his earlier fight against Alexander Volkanovski, Topuria's popularity appears more dependent on the matchup[3]. With his upcoming bout against Charles Oliveira, Collier predicts the winner will likely face Paddy Pimblett, potentially catapulting numbers to unprecedented heights[3].
The Price of Stardom: UFC's Broadcast Rights Negotiations
The UFC's current deal with ESPN, worth $1.5 billion over seven years, will expire at the end of 2025. Discussions with ESPN regarding a renewal have stalled due to a significant gap in valuation, with UFC demanding around $1 billion annually[2].
While Netflix and Amazon are prominent contenders for the new deal, Netflix appears to be more interested in event-based deals rather than comprehensive packages[4]. UFC CEO Dana White has hinted at considering multiple broadcasters rather than striking a single exclusive partnership[4][5].
The global reach of Netflix and its relationship with WWE offer potential benefits, making it a top candidate for the UFC's broadcast deal[2][5]. However, Netflix co-CEO's preference for one-off live sports events may limit the scope of UFC coverage[4].
The UFC's owners and executives must balance investor expectations with market realities to secure the lofty annual valuation of $1 billion. The outcome remains uncertain, with various possibilities – including multiple broadcasters or event-based deals – under consideration[1][2][4][5].
[1] MMA Fighting[2] Bloomberg[3] Casino.org[4] The Manifest[5] SportsBusiness Journal
Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria, two notable lightweight UFC fighters, will square off in a title match on June 28, with Topuria being the betting favorite at -345 according to DraftKings odds. Meanwhile, in sports betting circles, UFC events with top-tier popularity, such as those featuring stars like Paddy Pimblett, tend to see higher numbers, often rivaling or even surpassing events absent the likes of Jon Jones or Conor McGregor.
