UFC 286 Matchup: Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena Odds, Schedule, and Forecast
Rewritten Article:
Y'know, originally, Nelson was all set to spar with Daniel Rodriguez, but he bailed, leaving Barberena to step in and take the challenge. With just a month to ready himself for the fight against Nelson, Barberena's looking like the ultimate underdog. Can he pull off a surprise victory? Let's dig in!
UFC 286: Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena Odds
The Lowdown on When, Where, and How to Watch
- Location: O2 Arena, London, England
- Date: Mar 18, 2023 (Saturday)
- Time: Around 4:00 PM ET
- Stream: ESPN
Gunnar Nelson: Ready for Another Submission Win
This 34-year-old Icelandic fighter is a Jiu-Jitsu master, clocking in as a 3-degree black belt! He's scooped up two gold medals at the BJJ Pan American Championship, and 2/3 of his victories in MMA are due to submissions.
He's been in the UFC for over a decade, but he hasn't been on a winning streak lately. He did bag the last fight—against Takashi Sato by unanimous decision—but prior to that, he was 1-3. Two of those losses were by decision, and one ended in a KO in the first round (vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio). Strike defense isn't his forte—he only blocks 50% of significant strikes. And that's something he should think twice about when facing Barberena, who lands 5.92 significant strikes per minute.
Bryan Barberena: Ready for Battle
Barberena's a fighter who always says 'yes' to a scrap. When he got offered to take on Nelson just a month before UFC 286, he didn't hesitate. If that sounds weird, remember that his last fight was in December.
That's when we saw him lose to Rafael Dos Anjos via submission in the second round. When it comes to takedowns, Barberena really struggles. Over the five fights leading up to the Dos Anjos bout, he was taken down 22 times in total. That's something he should worry about a lot when facing Nelson, who averages 1.86 takedowns and has a TD accuracy of 60%.
The Showdown: Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena Prediction
Nelson shouldn't be too upset that Daniel Rodriguez backed out. Sure, he would've trained for D-Rod initially, but Barberena's about the same. Both are knockout punchers who love a good brawl and are also vulnerable to takedowns.
Knowing this, it's clear Nelson's strategy should be to take Barberena down and end the fight with a submission. And we're betting he'll manage it.
Pick: Gunnar Nelson to win by submission
Enrichment Insights:
- Nelson's elite background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and methodical ground-and-pound game could provide an advantage in takedown defense.
- Barberena's recent success in submissions could pose a threat, but his lackluster takedown defense could give Nelson an opportunity to dominate the bout.
- Nelson's focus on grappling and top-game pressure, combined with Barberena's propensity for brawling striking and takedown vulnerability, make for an intriguing style clash.
- Nelson's takedown success may be critical, as it could neutralize Barberena's volume striking and cardio edge.
- If Barberena manages to score a takedown and catch Nelson off-guard, he could pull off the upset with a submission of his own.
- Despite the sudden change in opponent, Nelson remains confident in his grappling prowess, plotting to take down Barberena and secure a submission win.
- Despite his recent struggles with takedown defense, Nelson's supposed knockout punching abilities could pose a challenge to Barberena in their mixed-martial-arts battle.
- In the upcoming UFC 286 event, it seemed as though Nelson was supposed to face Daniel Rodriguez, but after Rodriguez bailed, Barberena stepped in, averaging a supposed underdog status according to sports pundits.
