UAE and Saudi Arabia lead uneven GCC economic recovery in 2025
Growth across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies is showing signs of recovery, though at varying speeds. Recent projections highlight Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the main drivers, while Kuwait lags behind with the lowest expected expansion. The region’s overall outlook for 2025 suggests a steady rise, with digital transformation playing a key role in its development.
The UAE leads GCC growth forecasts with an expected rate of around 4.8 percent. Its strong performance is supported by ongoing economic diversification and investment in non-oil sectors. Saudi Arabia follows closely, with a projected growth of about 3.8 percent, despite concerns over rising public debt.
Qatar’s economy is set to expand by roughly 2.8 percent, driven largely by its non-oil activities. Bahrain’s growth is estimated at 3.5 percent, also fuelled by non-oil industries. Oman, meanwhile, stands out among the remaining GCC states with a forecasted growth rate of 3.1 percent.
Kuwait remains an outlier, with the slowest expected growth at 2.7 percent. Although the country recently passed a public debt law allowing government borrowing, analysts note it does little to boost economic expansion or diversify revenue streams. Across the region, the overall growth rate for 2025 is anticipated to reach approximately 3.8 percent.
The GCC’s recovery aligns with a broader shift toward digital maturity, marking a more stable phase in its economic transformation. However, none of the region’s countries appear in the World Bank’s top growth projections for 2023–2025, which focus instead on industrial nations, Switzerland, and the Eurozone.
The GCC’s economic outlook remains uneven, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia setting the pace. While digital advancements and non-oil sectors support growth, challenges like public debt and limited diversification persist in some states. The region’s projected 3.8 percent expansion in 2025 reflects cautious optimism as it moves toward a more mature economic phase.
