U.S. specialists suggest Possible Flexible Strategy for Trump in the Strait Region
In recent times, the dynamics of cross-strait relations have been significantly influenced by the strategies of US President Donald Trump, particularly in relation to Taiwan. Trump's approach, characterised by the use of tariffs and investment demands, has been aimed at compelling Taiwanese chipmakers, notably Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), to invest in the US.
This strategy, as reported in a Brookings' article titled "Taiwan's recall vote: Implications for Taiwan, China, and the United States," employs both incentives (such as higher investment tax credits) and punitive measures (tariffs up to 100%) to encourage Taiwanese chipmakers to relocate production to the US and reduce dependency on Taiwan. The goal is to revive the US chip industry, effectively using Taiwan's critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain to pressure business decisions with geopolitical consequences.
However, this strategy has not been without its diplomatic risks. The Taiwanese public's perception of the US has declined amid these tensions, indicating potential challenges. Chipmakers face a costly dilemma between accepting tariffs or investing heavily in US facilities.
In the domestic political landscape of Taiwan, recall campaigns (political or electoral movements aimed at Taiwanese officials or policies) could indirectly influence how Taiwan’s leadership and key companies respond. This, in turn, could impact negotiation stances and cross-strait relations.
Looking ahead to the 2028 elections, China is unlikely to exert pressure that alienates voters supporting the KMT. Greater support for Taiwan from Trump could include increased rhetorical support, increased arms sales, higher visibility US military presence, or more visible high-level interactions between US and Taiwan officials.
From Washington's perspective, a prolonged political deadlock could raise concerns about Taiwan's readiness for self-defense. Meanwhile, Beijing aims to diminish public support for the DPP by discrediting its leaders and encourages greater support for Taiwan leaders who are supportive of deeper cross-strait engagement.
This approach integrates economic pressure with geopolitical strategy, reflecting Trump's characteristic tariff-driven policies and focus on reviving US industry. The outcome of the recall campaign in Taiwan, while not definitively linking to the US's cross-strait strategies, has resulted in a divided government, potentially affecting cross-strait dynamics and US-Taiwan relations through the semiconductor angle.
References: [1] Bush, R., & Hass, R. (2020). Taiwan's recall vote: Implications for Taiwan, China, and the United States. Brookings. [2] Lee, Y. (2020). Trump's Taiwan Strategy: Tariffs and Semiconductors. The Diplomat. [3] Chen, C. (2020). Taiwanese Public Perception of US Declines Amid Tensions. Taipei Times. [4] Hsu, C. (2020). TSMC Faces Costly Dilemma as US-China Tensions Escalate. Nikkei Asia.
- Migration patterns, particularly among Taiwanese chipmakers, could potentially shift due to war-and-conflicts, as evidenced by the current policy-and-legislation proposed by the US administration aimed at relocating production to the US.
- General-news and crime-and-justice reports may cover the financial implications of car-accidents and fires in the United States, as Taiwanese chipmakers grapple with the costs associated with investing heavily in US facilities to avoid tariffs.
- Sports-betting platforms may witness increased activity, as some viewers and players could find themselves with more disposable income, should Taiwanese chipmakers decide to migrate production to the US to avoid trade conflicts and thus increase investment in the US economy.
- Political publications might preserve articles concerning the political landscape in Taiwan, as recall campaigns and elections could indirectly shape how Taiwan’s leadership and key companies respond to the ongoing conflict, impacting their negotiation stances and cross-strait relations.
- The fires department in the US could experience a rise in demands, should increased visibility US military presence, as suggested in the 2028 election predictions, lead to a surge in military exercises or bases in the United States, resulting in various accidents and incidents.
