U.S. rail trafficPropels forward due to Grain and Automotive sectors, surpassing projections for 2024
In the week ending August 2, 2025, North American intermodal traffic showed a resilient 2.7% year-over-year increase, despite the impact of newly imposed U.S. tariffs on key trading partners [1]. However, these tariffs, ranging from 15% to as high as 50%, are posing significant downside risks for future intermodal volumes.
According to consultant Lawrence Gross, the balance of 2025 is likely to be challenging, with more downside risk than upside for intermodal traffic [1]. The tariffs are affecting countries such as Brazil, India, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam, where levies reach up to 50%.
The second quarter of 2025 saw a moderately strong 2.4% year-over-year rise in total intermodal volume, buoyed by imports and consumer spending. However, certain segments such as trailers fell sharply by 25.4%, indicating mixed impacts of tariffs and trade policies [2][3].
The longer-term impact of tariffs and trade policies remains uncertain but raises concerns about potential volume pressures moving forward. Additionally, there are signs that tariffs and cost pressures are contributing to a shrinking U.S. domestic rail intermodal market share, pushing cargo owners to seek lower ocean shipping rates and sometimes straining relationships with carriers [4][5].
For the 31 weeks of 2025, traffic totalled 16,162,611 carloads and intermodal units, a 3.8% increase over the same period in 2024. For the year to date, North American volume is 20,943,417 carloads and intermodal units, a 2.9% increase over the first 31 weeks of 2024 [1].
The volume in Canada for the same period is 5,035,654 carloads and intermodal units, a gain of 1.6%. The figure included 233,805 carloads, up 6.4%, and 279,724 containers and trailers, up 0.2% [1]. Contrastingly, the volume in Mexico for the same period declined by 5.1%.
Rail traffic for the week ending Aug. 2, 2025, was 513,529 carloads and intermodal units, a 2.9% increase over the same week a year earlier [1]. The most recent data from the Intermodal Association of North America showed mixed results, with BNSF, CSX, Union Pacific seeing weekly improvements, while Mexico's GMXT and Norfolk Southern were below previous-year levels.
Grain saw a double-digit increase of 25.7% during this period [1]. Despite the challenges, the intermodal sector continues to show resilience, adapting to the evolving economic landscape. As the year progresses, it will be interesting to see how the sector navigates these tariff-related challenges and maintains its growth trajectory.
The intermodal sector, despite the tariff-related challenges, continues to demonstrate resilience. variety of sports, such as adapting to the evolving economic landscape, may serve as a helpful analogy for this resilience.
The tariffs, reaching as high as 50%, are not only affecting key trading partners but also causing significant downside risks for intermodal volumes, similar to a high-stakes game where every move counts.
