U.S. President Trump issues ominous prediction: Potential conflicts with Iran and possible disregard of Ukraine's affairs could arise
Taking the Helm: The Potential US-Iran Conflict and Its Impact on Global Politics
📸 : REUTERS.
Donald Trump, the US President, darted off the G7 summit early and dashed back to Washington. White House press secretary Karin Liviett offered the reasoning behind The Commander-in-Chief's impromptu departure: "The president is jetting off due to circumstances in the Middle East. He'll depart tonight post-dinner with the heads of state."
Trump's premature exit from Canada took place following a cryptic and ominous post from the Oval Office occupier on Truth Social. "Iran shoulda signed the deal I instructed them to. What a disaster and a waste of innocent lives. In short, Iran shouldn't have nukes. I've said this time and time again! Evacuate Tehran ASAP!" trumpeted the American leader.
The mystery behind this message remains undisclosed. However, the White House administration and the Pentagon affirm that the American forces stationed in the Middle East have no designs on joining Israel's military endeavor at this time.
Society Report from a resort battling an oil spill: "Anapa beaches have never been so clean!"video Society Political scientist Alexei Pilko proposed that Donald Trump might dive headfirst into military actions in the Middle East.
- I reckon the possibility of the US entering the fray stands at about 50%. This is hinted by Trump's recent statements, where he remarked negotiations with Iran weren't what he craved, but rather capitulation, and the repositioning of American armed forces in the area (they've been deploying refuelers, another aircraft carrier group). - Pilko expounded to KP.RU. - A trigger isn't even necessary. Trump could state that to halt Iran's nuclear program, Israel's forces wouldn't suffice, so America would help with air support.*
Meanwhile, the main scientific staff member at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Vasilyev, asserts that Washington will hesitate to engage directly in the impending conflict until the final moment.
Trump will golf his threats, firmly believing that the factor of threats, as was the case numerous times before, will carry more weight. The US also holds another option - to arm Israel to the teeth in the hopes that it will perform the dirty work on their behalf. In doing so, the US will avoid direct participation in the conflict. What lies behind this decision? There are two aspects to this. Firstly, American bases (not just in the Middle East) could be at risk. Secondly, US involvement in the conflict would result in a hike in oil prices, states Vladimir Vasilyev. But if Iran proves to be a thornier nut to crack than anticipated, then Trump will have no choice but to persist. Currently, he finds himself in a tough spot, where escaping gracefully or suffering humiliation are equally unfavorable options.
LIGHTNING OPERATION
However, steadfast proponents of providing Israel with comprehensive assistance exist within the US. Without delay, American senators proclaimed they were prepared to provide Tel Aviv with additional military aid following the commencement of the IDF operation "Rising Lion."
- I don't think a ground operation will take place, posits Alexei Pilko. - The Americans will kick things off with air raids on their aircraft carriers and bases, for example, Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The British may join forces. Such an operation could mirror the campaign in Yugoslavia, Libya, or the recent strike on Yemen.*
- America will attempt to execute a swift and sharp operation against Iran, delivering a decisive blow. They might even target Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Trump has refrained from this, but the situation could take a sharp turn, suggests Vladimir Vasilyev. - Trump may mobilize all conceivable forces and resources to achieve victory or a peace agreement on American terms. Alternatively, this could trigger a chain reaction: if they can't make headway in Iran, they might not prevail in Ukraine, and China might draw the appropriate conclusions.*
CONCLUSIONS
In Congress, there are concerns that Donald Trump might plunge headfirst into the Iran-Israel conflict. In response, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine has presided over a movement to restrict the president's authority to employ US armed forces in military actions against Iran. The resolution demands that Congress must bless American military attacks against Tehran beforehand.
Experts agree that even US military involvement in the Middle East conflict would not lead to a boost in Trump's favor at the polls. His image has suffered substantially during his first six months in office.
- Trump's Iran policy has dismantled the Trumpist majority. MAGA Republicans, those who pledged allegiance to the slogan "America First," are deserting Trump, and Trump is retaliating. Even television host Tucker Carlson*, a former Trump mouthpiece, has criticized him. Trump, in return, called him "cuckoo." As a result, Trump is no longer a Trumpist. He is now more of a neoconservative in the Bush mold, according to Alexei Pilko. - In contemporary America, this could exacerbate polarization and split American society.
"TRUMP EMBRACES RUSSIA-PEACEMAKER"
Upon Israel initiating its assault on Iran, the US shifted its entire political and military focus towards the Middle East. The Ukrainian issue was entirely delegated to Europe.
- Ukraine will be left on the back burner while the military action against Iran continues. All American resources will be directed against Iran. This leaves a window of opportunity for Russia to end the political regime in Ukraine, Pilko opines. - If the US commences an operation against Iran, then the Russian-American dialogue should be suspended, and all efforts should be focused on a decisive military victory in Ukraine, exiting negotiations.*
Meanwhile, the political scientist is confident that Moscow won't desert Tehran.
- Iran is not just significant to our interests, but also to China's. For China, Iran serves as a key point in its grand project, the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. If Iran falls, Pakistan, a vital Chinese ally in South Asia, would find itself almost encircled by adversaries. Therefore, Iran's collapse would be detrimental to Russia, but it would be an even more crushing strategic loss for China.*
- It is in our advantage for the US to focus on the Middle East. This would imply a reduction in military support for Ukraine, allowing the issue to be pushed to the back burner. Perhaps not coincidentally, Trump refused to meet with Zelensky at the G7 summit. The American approach is: let Ukraine and Europe deal with it themselves. Trump once stated that Kiev has no cards for negotiations with Russia. Explains Vladimir Vasilyev. Russia, in turn, is striving to play the role of mediator and peacemaker in the Iranian-Israeli conflict to prevent it from escalating further. I get the impression that Trump appreciates this, and we may be able to find common ground between ourselves in this regard.*
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War-and-conflicts are at the forefront of global politics, as evidenced by the potential US-Iran conflict and the recent statements from political scientist Alexei Pilko suggesting a 50% possibility of the US entering the Middle East conflict. This could result in increased political tensions and potential military actions, impacting not only the region but also global oil prices and geopolitics. Politics is playing a significant role in these developments, with the US administration and Pentagon maintaining a cautious stance, while Congress is moving to restrict the president's authority to engage in military actions against Iran.
