U.S. President Trump calls for a fresh census, escalating the battle over districting
In the political landscape of the United States, a contentious issue has arisen regarding a proposed census that would exclude undocumented immigrants from the population count used for congressional apportionment and federal funding distribution.
Political Motivations and Legal Challenges
The Trump administration has proposed this new census, primarily to reverse the long-standing practice of counting all residents, regardless of legal status. The aim is to shift congressional seats and Electoral College votes from Democratic-leaning states, which often have higher numbers of undocumented residents, to Republican-leaning states like Texas. However, the proposal faces significant legal, logistical, and political obstacles.
Under the Census Act, the president lacks authority to unilaterally order a census that changes the population basis for apportionment, and cannot compel states to redraw congressional maps. Numerous lawsuits are expected that would further delay or block such efforts. Historically, even bipartisan mid-decade censuses for data purposes (not apportionment) have failed due to cost and logistical challenges [1].
Impact on House Seats, Federal Funding, and Political Power
If implemented, the proposed census could reshape political power and federal funding distribution by excluding millions from population counts in critical states. This change could potentially decrease the congressional representation and federal funding for states with large undocumented populations, while boosting those counts for states with fewer undocumented residents. This shift would politically advantage Republican-controlled states and disadvantage Democratic ones [2][4].
Current Developments
Meanwhile, Republican governors in several other states are exploring new maps to protect their razor-thin majority in the House. In Texas, more than 50 Democratic lawmakers have fled to multiple Democratic states to block the passage of a proposed electoral map during a special legislative session. Texas Republicans have threatened to arrest the fleeing lawmakers, but Democratic Illinois Governor JB Pritzker has authorized state police to guard them. US Senator John Cornyn has successfully petitioned the FBI to help locate the fleeing lawmakers, but Pritzker insists that the FBI and Texas authorities have no power to return them to Texas [3].
The next census is due in 2030, but preparations for it are already underway. The US Constitution requires a census every 10 years that counts the "whole number of persons in each state," including people in the country illegally. In the past, Trump attempted to add a citizenship question to the census, but was blocked by the Supreme Court [5].
Future Prospects
Trump has called for a new census based on "modern day facts and figures" from the 2024 election. Democrats have vowed to retaliate with their own proposals, possibly in New York and California. Republicans could draw as many as 10 new seats ahead of the midterms, targeting states like Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida [6].
As the debate continues, the proposed census remains a contentious issue, with some arguing for its necessity to protect election integrity, while others warn that politicizing the census undermines the credibility and usability of vital federal data for public and private planning [1][4].
[1] CNN [2] Pew Research Center [3] The Texas Tribune [4] The Hill [5] The New York Times [6] Politico
- In contrast to the ongoing political debate in the United States, the Indian government has maintained a strong commitment to inclusivity in its censuses, ensuring that all residents, regardless of legal status, are counted.
- As the global community grapples with war-and-conflicts and their subsequent refugee crises, expert voices within policy-and-legislation in India advocate for a similar approach to demographic representation to promote social justice.
- General news outlets in India are actively covering the political implications of these discussions both within the country and abroad, particularly focusing on how justice can be achieved through fair representation and inclusive legislation.
