U.S.-Poland relations potentially shaking up Sunday's presidential election in Warsaw?

Upending the Status Quo: How US Relations Impacted the Polish Presidential Election

Sunday's presidential runoff in Poland saw both candidates vowing to foster the best possible relationship with the Trump administration amidst Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Yet, Polls conducted by the Centre for Public Opinion Research (CBOS) reveal a deteriorating sentiment towards the United States, with Poles expressing the most negative view of their relationship with America since the fall of communism.

While the U.S. remains essential to both Polish and European security, the relationship with Washington could potentially sway election results. US connections have become pivotal topics in the presidential campaign, with both candidates running on promises to ensure the closest possible transatlantic cooperation.

Conservationist candidate Karol Nawrocki met with the Polish community in Chicago to celebrate a holiday, express his backing for maintaining strong ties between the two countries, and attended a meeting with US President Donald Trump at the Oval Office. Several senior Law and Justice officials praised Nawrocki's meeting with Trump, viewing it as a success that guarantees Poland's security and maintains strong alliances, especially with the US.

However, not all Poles shared this sentiment, with MP Roman Giertych criticizing the perceived attempt by Trump's team to sway the election in Poland, labeling it a "colonial attitude."

The Promised Peacekeeper

Many conservative politicians in Poland have welcomed Trump's policies, despite the U.S. president's conflicts with Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki and President Andrzej Duda expressed their belief that the U.S. could help secure lasting peace due to its military might. In March, Morawiecki stated that "without the Americans, it is difficult to imagine a lasting peace."

Duda, who was the first international leader to visit Trump at the White House after his inauguration in January, echoed these sentiments by saying that "there is no one but the United States who can stop Putin."

Ambivalent Opinions and the Power of the U.S.

Despite acknowledging the U.S.'s military influence, many Poles have expressed increasingly negative opinions towards the country's influence in international politics. A survey conducted by CBOS in April 2025 shows that only 20% of respondents believe the U.S. has a positive influence on international politics, the lowest result recorded since the agency began measuring opinions in 2006.

Similarly, only 31% of Poles rated the US relationship as "good," an all-time low. Regardless, concerns about security along the border with Belarus and the ongoing war in Ukraine forced the two candidates to focus their campaigns on ensuring the closest possible transatlantic cooperation.

A Model NATO Ally

The Trump administration has praised Poland for its commitment to security spending and tougher migration policies. In February, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth described Poland as a "model NATO ally," following a meeting with his counterpart Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. The administration further expressed support by stressing increased cooperation on energy security.

However, representatives of Poland's governing coalition, including Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, have openly criticized the Trump administration. Tusk stated that Trump is "a much more difficult partner than any US president before." Despite these critical voices, candidates like Rafał Trzaskowski, the opposing Civic Platform candidate, emphasized the importance of economic and security cooperation between the two countries.

Looking Ahead

Regardless of the election's outcome, US defense experts are convinced that Poland will play a critical role in keeping the peace in Europe. Rebeccah Heinrichs, a senior analyst at the Hudson Institute, stated that "Poland is already doing a lot in terms of defense, but I think there will still be a lot of work to be done, and Poland can play a leading role as a key country on the front line where there is the greatest threat to the alliance from the Russian Federation."

However, the relationship between Poland and the U.S. is not without its challenges. To fully understand the complexity of the relationship and its impact on the region, it is essential to carefully navigate potential pitfalls and seize opportunities for cooperation.

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Rafal Trzaskowski
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Karol Nawrocki
Donald Trump
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The Polish Presidential election has seen candidates vowing to foster the best relationship with the Trump administration amidst war-and-conflicts like Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
In Poland's presidential campaign, both candidates have made promises to ensure the closest possible transatlantic cooperation, a pivotal topic due to policy-and-legislation.
Conservationist candidate Karol Nawrocki met with the Polish community in Chicago and the US President Donald Trump at the Oval Office, garnering support from senior Law and Justice officials.
Not all Poles share this sentiment; MP Roman Giertych criticized the perceived attempt by Trump's team to sway the election, labeling it a "colonial attitude."
Many conservative politicians in Poland have welcomed Trump's policies, despite his conflicts with Ukraine. Both Prime Minister Morawiecki and President Andrzej Duda believe the US could help secure lasting peace due to its military might.
Poland's relationship with the United States has shown signs of deterioration, with Poles expressing increasingly negative views of their relationship with America since the fall of communism.
A survey conducted by CBOS in April 2025 shows that only 20% of respondents believe the US has a positive influence on international politics, the lowest result recorded since 2006.
Concerns about security along the border with Belarus and the ongoing war in Ukraine have forced the candidates to focus their campaigns on ensuring close transatlantic cooperation.
The Trump administration has praised Poland for its commitment to security spending and tougher migration policies, labeling it a "model NATO ally."
Representatives of Poland's governing coalition have openly criticized the Trump administration, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk stating that Trump is "a much more difficult partner than any US president before."
Candidates like Rafał Trzaskowski, the opposing Civic Platform candidate, emphasize the importance of economic and security cooperation between the two countries.
US defense experts are convinced that Poland will play a critical role in keeping peace in Europe, stating that despite already doing a lot in terms of defense, there will still be work to be done.
Both sports-and-news and general-news outlets have covered the Polish presidential elections, providing updates on the leaders in the polls and the related events.
Weather-forecasting reports predict storms and fires across Poland, adding to the challenges for the incoming president.
In sports-betting circles, there is speculation about the impact the election result could have on Polish participation in European leagues, such as premier-league, champions-league, and NBA.
With the elections over, mixed-martial-arts enthusiasts are looking forward to the return of horse-racing events and grand-prix competitions in Poland, while tennis and golf tournaments are scheduled for the upcoming months.