U.S.-mediated peace agreement between Armenians and Azerbaijanis meets with optimism and apprehension
A historic peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered by the United States, was signed on Friday by the leaders of both nations. The agreement, signed by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, marks the most comprehensive attempt to resolve the long-standing dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Background
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict dates back to the late 1980s, during the dissolution of the USSR, when the region's ethnic Armenian majority sought secession from Azerbaijan. This led to war and displacement, resulting in a shaky ceasefire that was frequently breached. Renewed fighting in 2020 saw Azerbaijan reclaim significant territory, and by 2023, it had fully controlled Nagorno-Karabakh, causing the exodus of nearly all ethnic Armenians from the region.
Significance and Provisions of the 2025 Agreement
The treaty formalizes peace and aims to normalize relations by opening trade and travel and ensuring mutual respect for sovereignty. It endorses the opening of a key transit corridor, the "TRIPP corridor," through Armenia that connects Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan and Turkey, offering economic opportunities but also raising sovereignty and security concerns for Armenia. The agreement discards the OSCE Minsk Group, acknowledging the failure of earlier efforts to resolve the dispute inclusively.
Geopolitical Impact in the South Caucasus
The deal has shifted the regional balance, weakening Russia’s traditional influence over the South Caucasus as the U.S. takes a leading mediating role. Moscow’s muted but wary response signals strategic recalculation. Iran and Russia have expressed concern that the deal, especially the transit corridor, introduces greater U.S. influence near their borders and could destabilize regional security. Turkey views the agreement as a diplomatic success that may open historic opportunities for ties with Armenia and enhance regional connectivity, further strengthening Turkey’s role in the South Caucasus. Economically, the corridor could enable energy and trade routes linking the Caucasus and Central Asia to Europe that bypass Russia and Iran, shifting energy transit geopolitics in the region.
In summary, the U.S.-brokered agreement ends decades of conflict by addressing core territorial and diplomatic issues, while reshaping geopolitical dynamics by reducing Russia’s dominance and increasing U.S. and Turkish influence in the strategically critical South Caucasus. The agreement includes the creation of a new transit corridor, dubbed the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity."
The agreement does not constitute a formal peace treaty but represents a significant diplomatic step toward normalization of relations. The agreement has received divided views in both Baku and Yerevan, with some expressing optimism and others skepticism. Residents in Yerevan have raised concerns about unclear aspects of the agreement, while some in Baku, such as Gunduz Aliyev, have expressed trust in the U.S. as a guarantor for the agreement. Arif Hajili, chairman of the Azerbaijani opposition party Musavat, believes the most positive aspect of the agreement is the absence of Russia from the process and warns of lingering challenges, including Armenia's economic dependence on Russia and 2 million Azerbaijanis living in Russia.
References: [1] BBC News. (2025, October 1). Armenia and Azerbaijan sign peace deal over Nagorno-Karabakh. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59036543 [2] Al Jazeera. (2025, October 1). Armenia and Azerbaijan sign landmark peace deal over Nagorno-Karabakh. [online] Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/1/armenia-and-azerbaijan-sign-landmark-peace-deal-over-nagorno-karabakh [3] The Guardian. (2025, October 1). Armenia and Azerbaijan sign peace deal to end decades-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/01/armenia-and-azerbaijan-sign-peace-deal-to-end-decades-long-conflict-over-nagorno-karabakh [4] Reuters. (2025, October 1). U.S.-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan reshapes South Caucasus. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-brokered-peace-deal-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan-reshapes-south-caucasus-2025-10-01/ [5] The New York Times. (2025, October 1). Armenia and Azerbaijan Sign a Peace Deal, Ending a Long-Running Conflict. [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/world/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal.html
The historic peace agreement, signed in Seattle, concludes a long-standing dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh and marks a significant migration of ethnic Armenians from the region due to war and conflicts. The agreement's provisions include the normalization of relations, opening trade and travel, and the creation of a transit corridor, called the "TRIPP corridor," which has raised concerns about sovereignty and security in Armenia, leading to mixed reactions within the two nations. Meanwhile, geopolitically, the deal strengthens Turkey's role in the South Caucasus and reduces Russia's traditional influence in the region, potentially reshaping general news and politics around the world.
