Ready for a Talk, but Under the Right Conditions: The Case of Indirect Nuclear Discussions Between Iran and the US
Casual Convo:
U.S.-Iran diplomat discussions hinted through intermediaries on nuclear matters
Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has asserted that indirect nuclear talks with the US are possible, firmly stating, "The path for indirect talks is open." However, he maintains that direct negotiations won't be on the table as long as the US' stance towards Iran doesn't change. This comes after the "maximum pressure" exerted by US President Donald Trump, as Tehran refuses to engage in direct negotiations under this condition.
Regarding Trump's threats, Araghchi said, "No one would ever think of invading Iran." He added, "Iran is 100 percent prepared." In a letter sent two weeks ago, Trump threatened military action if Iran refused to resume talks on its nuclear program. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded by saying Trump's threats would "lead nowhere."
The Nitty-Gritty of the Situation:
Iran has rejected direct nuclear negotiations with the US due to the need for the US to fulfill its past commitments, particularly regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) from which the US withdrew in 2018. Meanwhile, Trump has offered talks while also threatening military action if negotiations fail. It's uncertain if Trump would accept indirect negotiations, as previous efforts have been unsuccessful.
The Road Ahead:
The E3 (UK, France, Germany) has put pressure on Iran to conclude a nuclear deal before snapback sanctions are reimposed by June 2025. Tensions are heightened by US-Israeli cooperation and military threats against Iran, which Iran is seeking to deter through indirect negotiations. Successful indirect talks will require addressing past Breaches of commitments and finding common ground on contentious issues like Iran's missile program.
In conclusion, despite the challenges, indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the US may remain a preferable path to military conflict for both parties.
[1] https://www.apnews.com/article/europe-iran-nuclear-diplomacy-middle-east-9c014929e22e6e57f9b6a9e42072e8a8[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/18/iran-ready-for-nuclear-talks-with-us-if-u-s-lifts-sanctions[3] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trump-offers-iran-nuclear-talks-warns-threat-military-action-n1354916[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-indirect-talks-are-possible-iranian-foreign-minister-says-2022-04-18/[5] https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-iran-letter-nuclear-program-nukes-nuclear-deal-11650774918
- The indirect negotiations between Iran and the US about nuclear policies are possible according to Iran's Foreign Minister, but he emphasizes that the US must change its stance regarding Iran before direct negotiations can occur.
- Iran's readiness for negotiations has been stated by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who also mentioned that the US has not yet shown the willingness to agree to important terms, such as fulfilling past commitments under the JCPOA.
- Despite the US offering talks and threatening military action, Iran continues to seek indirect negotiations as a means to address past breaches of commitments and find common ground on contentious issues like Iran's missile program, as a way to deter US-Israeli military threats.
