A Distance from the Atomic Bomb: US Intelligence Challenges Israel's Reasoning for Strike on Iran
U.S. intelligence casts doubt on Israel's rationale for launching strikes against Iran
Get the inside scoop on the ongoing tension between Israel and Iran over nuclear ambitions with our unfiltered, unapologetic take. Here's the latest lowdown:
Reports suggest that Israel has been bombing Iranian targets with rockets since the end of last week, citing a supposed imminent threat posed by Iran's nuclear program. Israeli officials have claimed that the program has surpassed an "irreversible threshold." However, according to four US officials familiar with the analysis, US intelligence agencies paint a different picture.
According to these officials, US intelligence debunks the idea that Iran is actively pursuing a nuclear weapon or is anywhere near producing one that could be delivered to other states. In fact, the assessment suggests that Iran is at least three years from reaching such a capability. If true, the justification for the current attacks provided by Israel's government appears questionable.
These findings were also echoed by US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, who addressed the Senate Intelligence Committee at the end of March. President Donald Trump, however, dismissed Gabbard's statement, stating, "I don't care what she said. I believe they were about to have it," according to the Associated Press.
US intelligence agencies also question the effectiveness of Israel's attacks, concluding that the nuclear program would only be set back by a few months. While the uranium enrichment facility in Natans was significantly damaged, the heavily fortified facility in Fordo remained practically untouched. Given Israel's limited capabilities, experts believe that a lasting destruction of the facilities would require US military intervention.
Former diplomat and Middle East expert Brett McGurk, now a CNN analyst, offers his take on the situation, stating, "Israel can make the nuclear facilities inoperable, but to really destroy them, you either need a US military strike or a deal."
Yet, President Trump has maintained that the US does not want to actively participate in the conflict. However, sources suggest that the US government is aware that only with its military support can the Iranian nuclear program be effectively shut down. Some hawks in the US government are pushing for military aid to Israel, while Trump publicly pressures Iran to sign a deal.
Recent evaluations by US Central Command (CENTCOM) have also differed from those of US intelligence agencies, with some US military officials calling for increased resources for the Middle East in response to concerns over potential Iranian nuclear capabilities. However, the US military would only intervene in self-defense and not participate in Israel's offensives.
As the situation continues to evolve, it's important to bear in mind the varying assessments of Iran's nuclear program from US intelligence agencies, Israel, and former US officials, underscoring the complexity and potential biases in intelligence-gathering and interpretation.
Sources:- CNN- Associated Press- ntv.de
[[2] "US intelligence: Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon," CNN, April 04, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/04/politics/trump-nuclear-iran/index.html]- [[3] "Trump dismisses intelligence assessment on Iran," Associated Press, April 05, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-politics-government-and-politics-foreign-policy-iran-bdd6184b76942ea2df31cdb4cec01c46]- [[4] "Iran military: Central Command head calls for more resources for Middle East," CNN, April 10, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/centcom-head-michael-kurilla-middle-east-resources/index.html]
- The ongoing tension between Israel and Iran over nuclear ambitions is influenced by varying assessments of Iran's nuclear program, with US intelligence agencies asserting that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, contrary to Israeli claims.
- The debate over Iran's nuclear capabilities and the legitimacy of Israel's attacks are intertwined with politics and general news, as well as the ongoing war-and-conflicts in the Middle East, with hawks in the US government advocating for military aid to Israel.
