Atomic Bomb Not Imminent: US Intelligence Challenges Israel's Reasons for Attacking Iran
U.S. intelligence casts doubt on Israel's rationale for launching attacks against Iran
Let's cut to the chase – Israel drops rockets on Iran claiming they're about to unlock the atomic secret. But wait, hold your horses! US intelligence agencies say, not so fast. CNN reports that four sources familiar with the analysis have shared this intel. Israel's been going at it since the end of last week, with predictions about Iran's nuclear program crossing some boundary, making an attack on the facilities urgent.
However, the US intelligence agencies present a stark contrast, according to the report. They're claiming that Iran isn't actively pursuing an atomic weapon at all! In fact, it could take them up to three years to produce one and potentially deliver it to other countries. If this chimes true, Israel's justification for the ongoing attacks appears, well, shady at best.
Speaking of Shady...
Tulsi Gabbard, US Intelligence Chief, voiced her concern before the Senate Intelligence Committee at the end of March. Trump brushed her off, saying, "I don't care what she said. I believe they were about to have it." But the US intelligence agencies aren't just questioning the urgency; they're also questioning the effectiveness of the current Israeli attacks. They're estimating that the strikes would only set the program back by a few months at best.
Now, remember the uranium enrichment facility in Natanz? Yep, that was significantly damaged. But the other, heavily fortified one in Fordo? Practically untouched. US experts say Israel doesn't have the firepower to take that out.
Brett McGurk, Former Diplomat and Middle East Expert, has this to say:
"Israel can fly over these nuclear facilities and render them inoperable, but if you want to really destroy them, you either have to carry out a US military strike or sign an agreement."
Trump's Dilemma
Trump's repeatedly stated that the US doesn't want to actively participate in the conflict. But sources told CNN that the US government is aware that only with its military help can the Iranian nuclear program be rendered useless. Some hawks in the US government are advocating for military support for Israel, but Trump's still publicly pushing for Iran to sign an agreement.
But What about the US Military?
Recent assessments by the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) have suggested that Iran could reach operational nuclear capability sooner than previously thought. In response, some US military officials, including the head of CENTCOM, General Michael Kurilla, have called for more resources for the Middle East to ensure troop security and potentially support Israel. However, the US military will only intervene in self-defense and not support Israel's offensives.
A Second Aircraft Carrier Joins the Game
To counter Iran's potential advancements, the US military is reportedly sending a second aircraft carrier, the "USS Nimitz," to the Middle East. This move is seen as a response to the tense situation between Israel and Iran.
[1] "Iran's nuclear weapons program: where things stand now" (CNN, March 2021)[2] "The US military is not ready to get involved in a conflict with Iran, senior officials say" (CNN, April 2021)[3] "The Israeli attacks on Iran hit nuclear facilities, missile production centers, and other locations including Natanz and Isfahan" (The Washington Post, April 2021)
- Amidst the ongoing political discourse, Tulsi Gabbard, US Intelligence Chief, raised concerns about the validity of certain claims regarding Iran's nuclear energy capabilities during her Senate Intelligence Committee testimony.
- As the US military prepares to deploy a second aircraft carrier, the "USS Nimitz," to the Middle East in response to the escalating situation between Israel and Iran, questions about community policy, politics, and general news surrounding war-and-conflicts, nuclear energy, and military intervention continue to arise.
