U.S. Indifference Toward Future Situation: Kellogg Announces Ceasefire Basis in Ukraine, Prioritizing Immediate Truce Over Long-Term Concerns
In a nutshell, letting Russia continue its hold on Crimea, Donetsk, and Lugansk would bring some harsh realities for Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine:
- A turbulent domestic landscape:
- Sapping support: Giving in to Russia might cost Zelensky some popularity among Ukrainians, especially those who consider regaining these territories as a vital part of national sovereignty.
- Backlash galore: Opponents waiting in the wings can exploit this decision, accusing Zelensky of prioritizing complicity over Ukraine's interests, causing a rift in national unity.
- Strained diplomatic ties:
- Sputtering relations with allies: Western partners, firmly committed to preserving Ukraine's territorial integrity, could take a negative view of such concessions, weakening Ukraine's diplomatic strength and global support.
- ** Diminished aspirations for NATO**: Acknowledging Russian control could hinder Ukraine's drive to join NATO, as it might appear as capitulating on critical national security matters.
- Heightened security risks:
- Expanded Russian clout: Permitting Russia to maintain control over these areas would afford it strategic benefits, potentially amplifying its influence over Ukraine's defense and foreign policy.
- Threat of future hostilities: Hesitating to advance could provide Russia with an improved position to reorganize and attack once more, increasing the probability of battling a prolonged conflict[2].
- A constitutional conundrum:
- Clashing with the Constitution: Zelensky's stance on recognizing Russian control over Crimea aligns with Ukraine's Constitution, which views Crimea as Ukrainian territory. Capitulating would contradict this constitutional stance, creating legal issues for the Ukrainian government[2].
- Economic difficulties:
- The burden of strife: The ongoing conflict and compromise with Russia's demands could place added stress on Ukraine's economy, which is already reliant on foreign aid for survival. Potential access to frozen Russian assets, proposed as part of peace negotiations, could become elusive if Ukraine is seen as compromising on core territorial issues[1].
- Forging a truce with Russia over Crimea, Donetsk, and Lugansk may result in a general news headline about Volodymyr Zelensky: "Ukrainian President ready to accept truce, but politics and war-and-conflicts await."
- In the Baltic region, diplomatic ties between Ukraine and its Western allies could happen differently if Ukraine shows readiness to accept Russia's control over disputed territories: "Ukraine's NATO aspirations may be at a stalemate due to controversial truce negotiations with Russia."
- The internal dynamics within Ukraine might strain as opinions differ on the potential truce, with some sections of the population criticizing Zelensky: "Political opponents are ready to pounce on any compromise made as a sign of Ukraine's capitulation in the lingering conflict."
- should a peaceful resolution be reached, it would still bring economic consequences for Ukraine, as potential access to frozen Russian assets may not happen if Ukraine is viewed as prioritizing concessions over territorial sovereignty: "Economic difficulties may arise as a result of compromise with Russia, hindering Ukraine's access to vital financial aid and investment."
