U.S.-India Relations on the Line: Balancing Act Between Oil Imports from Russia Could Strain Ties
India's energy choices and potential alignment with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) are reshaping its relationships with major global powers. The country's growing dependence on Russian oil and potential engagement with the SCO, a multilateral platform led by China and Russia, are creating complex consequences.
For the United States, India's increased Russian oil imports risk straining bilateral ties. Continuing significant Russian oil purchases have triggered U.S. punitive tariffs (25%) on Indian exports starting August 2025, potentially hurting India's export sector and prompting diplomatic friction. The U.S. also pressures India to reduce these imports and increase American oil purchases, placing India in a challenging position between energy affordability and avoiding economic penalties.
Regarding Russia, India's dependence on discounted Russian crude strengthens their bilateral trade and strategic partnership, especially in defense cooperation, such as joint missile development. Russia remains committed to supplying India oil despite Western sanctions, and the two countries aim to boost bilateral trade from $68.7 billion in 2024-25 towards a $100 billion target by 2030. Russia is actively working to address the existing $60 billion trade imbalance and facilitate trade logistics and payment mechanisms.
With China, India's alignment towards Russia and the SCO could deepen geopolitical complexity. The SCO provides a platform that India may increasingly engage with, potentially signaling closer ties with China's sphere of influence. However, India's energy choices indirectly affect China too, as China also absorbs surplus Russian oil barrels when India reduces its imports. This dynamic reveals a nuanced energy competition between India and China while sharing Russia as a key supplier.
India's next moves require careful calculation, as each decision carries significant long-term consequences for its trade and its place in the shifting global power structure. A senior Indian diplomat stated that the country is navigating a delicate geopolitical balancing act between securing affordable energy, managing Western sanctions, and maintaining strategic autonomy through diversified partnerships across these powers.
The United States and its allies view Russia and China as strategic rivals. Conversations in Washington policy circles have questioned India's reliability as a Quad partner, a strategic grouping that includes the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India. Analysts warn that closer alignment with Russia and China could strain India's relations with the West, potentially inviting further economic restrictions and weakening platforms like the Quad.
India's trust deficit with China remains deep due to border disputes, military skirmishes, and Beijing's support for Pakistan during Operation Sindoor. Moscow's military cooperation with China, including joint patrols in the Sea of Japan and advanced technology transfers, has added to New Delhi's unease.
In the short run, India is benefiting from purchasing Russian crude at a discount. However, strategists warn that these savings could be erased if Western tariffs expand to cover more sectors. President Donald Trump's tariff-heavy strategy is blurring the line between friends and competitors.
If Prime Minister Narendra Modi attends the SCO summit, it could be interpreted as a signal that India is willing to engage more with blocs where the United States has little influence. The surplus in the U.S.-India trade relationship is repeatedly highlighted as a proof of its benefits for India, but the country's continued purchase of discounted Russian oil has sparked a dispute that strains India-U.S. relations.
[1] "India-Russia Trade Relations: Overview and Prospects" - Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) [2] "India's Energy Choices and Global Relationships" - Observer Research Foundation (ORF) [3] "U.S. Tariffs on Indian Imports: Impact and Implications" - NITI Aayog [4] "India-China Energy Relations: A Changing Landscape" - Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) [5] "India's Strategic Autonomy: Challenges and Opportunities" - Centre for Policy Research (CPR)
- The Increased Indian oil imports from Russia raise questions about its domestic politics and general news, as the ongoing US tariffs on Indian exports, set to start August 2025, could create diplomatic friction and impact the export sector.
- Technology and sports are not directly mentioned in this context, but India's strategic decisions in terms of energy choices and trade with major powers like Russia, China, and the US, are influencing its relations and global alignments, which could indirectly impact various sectors including technology and sports in the long run, given their interconnected nature in today's globalized world.
