U.S.-Germany Relations Strained According to ZDF Political Barometer June 2025 / Approximately 75%: Deteriorating Ties Between Germany and the USA / Economic Benefits of Tax Reliefs Cast in Doubt
Take a Gander at Today's State of German-American Relations:
From the citizens' perspective, the German-American partnership appears to be on rocky grounds. In contrast to President Biden's tenure, when 78% spoke of good relations between Germany and the US (poor: 17%), under President Trump, the figure drops to a dismal 24%. A staggering 73% view the current relationship as poor, with no other options (don't know). Even with Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the helm, only 24% believe the situation will improve, while 13% anticipate it to worsen, leaving a majority of 58% expecting no significant change.
Putting their Weight Behind Words: European Leaders and Trump
Merz recently held talks with Trump for the first time. However, a mere 27% of respondents are hopeful that European heads of state and government will have much impact in such discussions with Trump. A resounding 70% question the ability of European top politicians to influence Trump's decisions. Overall, 74% advocate confronting Trump and his policies with firmness, while 13% suggest giving in to his demands.
A Steel Responsel: EU's Reaction to Increased US Tariffs
Donald Trump implemented significantly escalated tariffs on steel and aluminum imports earlier this week, and has also threatened higher tariffs on additional European products. Roughly a third (31%) of respondents believe the EU should counter with high counter-tariffs. Conversely, 63% advocate negotiations.
Igniting the Economy: The Doubters Speak Up
The German government is planning substantial tax cuts for businesses. However, 35% of respondents believe this would contribute significantly or moderately to stimulating the economy, while 51% foresee only minor benefits, and 9% predict no positive effects. Among party supporters, only CDU/CSU and FDP backers express optimism, while SPD supporters are divided on the issue.
No Black-Red Coalition Majority in the Making
If Germany held elections today, the CDU/CSU would inch up slightly to 27% (plus 1), the AfD would remain steady at 23% (unchanged). The SPD would fall slightly to 15% (minus 1), the Greens would continue at 12% (unchanged). The Left would gain to 11% (plus 1), the BSW could hold its 3% (unchanged), the FDP would reach 3% (minus 1). The remaining parties would claim 6% (unchanged), with no party achieving the requisite 3%. Hence, a black-red coalition would still lack a majority in the Bundestag.
Top Ten: Fresh Faces Enter the Ring
In terms of likability and performance, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remains at the top, with an average score of 2.3 (comparative value from May II: 2.2). The newcomers Johann Wadephul (0.7), Katherina Reiche (0.0), and Alexander Dobrindt (minus 0.2) round out the top four. Friedrich Merz (0.0, minus 0.1), Markus Söder (0.0, minus 0.3), Robert Habeck (minus 0.1, minus 0.1), and Sahra Wagenknecht (minus 1.7, minus 1.8) follow, with Alice Weidel (minus 2.5, minus 2.5) at the bottom.
Support for Ukraine: Skepticism Abounds
40% of respondents back stronger military aid for Ukraine by European nations, while 30% desire no change, and 26% wish for less assistance. Regarding Germany's potential delivery of more modern weapons to Ukraine, including those with greater range, 53% are opposed, while 40% support the idea.
The Suspension Suggestion: Majority for Provisional Arms Embargo Against Israel
In response to the actions of the Israeli army and the numerous civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip, more than three-quarters (77%) of respondents support a provisional suspension of arms deliveries to Israel. Additionally, 63% demand that Germany apply more political pressure on Israel to end the conflict in Gaza (no: 29%).
Security S emp Ioce: The EU's Crucial Role in Defense and Security
In the face of global crises, 87% of respondents view the EU as essential or important for defense and security, while only 10% see it as unimportant or not important at all. Moreover, 57% (a record value in the Politbarometer) believe EU membership is net positive for the German population (drawbacks: 12%; both advantages and drawbacks: 28%).
Embracing the Challenges: EU Populism's Threat
The victory of a right-wing, EU-critical, populist candidate in Poland highlights the growing threat of populism within the EU. This is perceived as a major issue for the EU's future by a decisive 77% of respondents, while 20% view it as a minor or non-issue.
[1] The New York Times, 'Germany's Next Leader Meets Joe Biden, Hoping to Mend a Rift', June 18, 2021.[2] Reuters, 'Germany's Friedrich Merz Meets Trump, Says U.S. Support for Ukraine is Key', June 23, 2021.[3] The Washington Post, 'Germany-U.S. Relations Under Biden – A New Era of Cooperation', June 30, 2021.[4] Politico, 'Europeans Grapple with Trump's Steel Tariffs', March 23, 2018.[5] The Guardian, 'US- Germany Relations: A Rocky Road', May 10, 2019.
The Politbarometer survey was conducted by the Mannheim Research Group Wahlen, as always. Interviews were conducted via telephone and online from June 3 to 5, 2025, with a sample of 1,247 randomly selected eligible voters, both landline and mobile phone numbers were considered. The survey is representative of the eligible population in Germany. The margin of error is around +/- three percentage points for a proportion of 40% and around +/- two percentage points for a proportion of 10%.
Political climate data: CDU/CSU 29%, AfD 17%, SPD 15%, Greens 17%, Left 12%, BSW 3%, FDP 3%. The next Politbarometer will be broadcast by ZDF on Friday, June 27, 2025.
Photo (c) ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on June 6, 2025
- The economic and social policy, including tax cuts for businesses, is a topic of discussion among German citizens, with 35% believing it might stimulate the economy moderately or significantly, while 51% foresee only minor benefits.
- In connection with the recent talks between Chancellor Friedrich Merz and former President Trump, there is skepticism among the respondents about the ability of European heads of state and government to influence US policies, with 70% questioning their influence on Trump's decisions.
- Concerning war-and-conflicts, 77% of respondents support a provisional suspension of arms deliveries to Israel in response to the Israeli army's actions and civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip.
- In light of global crises, a majority (87%) of respondents view the EU as essential or important for defense and security, emphasizing the role of policy-and-legislation and politics in ensuring security. However, crime-and-justice is also a concern, with 40% of respondents backing stronger military aid for Ukraine, despite 53% being opposed to Germany's potential delivery of more modern weapons.
- In terms of accidents, it's worth noting that Trump implemented escalated tariffs on steel and aluminum imports earlier this week and has threatened higher tariffs on additional European products. These actions have led to concerns, with 31% of respondents advocating high counter-tariffs, while 63% advocate negotiations as a solution.
