U.S. General's Warning to Lukashenko on Kaliningrad Reminded by Natalia Radina
In mid-September 2025, Russia and Belarus are set to conduct the joint military exercises Zapad-2025. These exercises, which are expected to involve around 13,000 troops, have raised concerns among NATO officials and experts, who fear that they could be used as a cover for aggressive military maneuvers against NATO members, particularly Poland and the Baltic states.
Rehearsals for a potential invasion scenario targeting the Suwałki Corridor, the narrow land bridge linking Poland and Lithuania, are anticipated to be practiced during Zapad-2025. Capturing this corridor would effectively cut off the Baltic states from reinforcements, making it a strategic target. Similar exercises in 2017 and 2021 involved simulations of such operations, and Zapad-2025 is expected to follow suit.
Belarus initially planned to relocate the drills deeper inland to reduce tensions along its western border, but recent threats to move some parts of the exercises closer to the NATO border have increased alarm. This decision is justified by increased military activity by Poland and Lithuania nearby.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and NATO officials have expressed concern that Russia might use these exercises as a pretext for aggressive military maneuvers against NATO members. Reports suggest that the exercises could include training for tactical nuclear strikes and the use of advanced missile systems.
Natalia Radina, the chief editor of Charter97.org, voiced her concerns about the potential for provocations or simulated attempts to break through the Suwałki Corridor during Zapad-2025. She also expressed worry about the possibility of Russian troops entering from Belarus' territory, a concern shared by many in the region. Radina does not trust Lukashenko's promises of Belarus' non-involvement in Russia's new aggressive actions.
In addition to these concerns, Radina discussed a drone incident in Minsk, which she believes may be a result of Russia using Belarusian airspace for attacks on Ukraine. She also suggested the possibility of a drone production plant being secretly built in Minsk.
Lithuanian defense minister has stated that further provocations are expected during the Zapad-2025 exercises. In response, Lithuania is searching for a drone that flew into its territory for the second time this July.
General Christopher Donahue, commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, has stated that in case of an attack on the Baltic states, "Kaliningrad will be literally wiped off the face of the earth." This statement underscores the seriousness of the potential threat posed by Zapad-2025.
Ukrainian experts suggest that during the Zapad-2025 exercises, Lukashenko may be interested in escalating the situation, as an attack from Belarus' territory against the Baltic states or Ukraine would be a catastrophe for him. If forces move from Belarusian territory, strikes will be launched against Russian and Belarusian military facilities and concentrations.
As the date for Zapad-2025 approaches, NATO and neighboring countries are closely monitoring the situation, preparing for potential escalations and working to maintain regional stability. The exercises, while intended to be defensive in nature, have raised concerns about their potential to provoke conflict and increase tensions near NATO borders.
War-and-conflicts reports suggest that the Zapad-2025 military exercises by Russia and Belarus may include training for tactical nuclear strikes and the use of advanced missile systems, leading to increased political tensions between NATO and the participating countries. General news outlets are discussing the potential for provocations or simulated attacks on the Suwałki Corridor during Zapad-2025, with Lithuanian officials expressing concern about further provocations and searching for a drone that flew into their territory.
