Outsourcing America's Backbone: How Trump's Deportation Crusade Puts the US Economy at Risk
U.S. Economy Deteriorating Due to Trump's Immigrant Removals
In the heart of cowboy country, a tense standoff looms. US President Donald Trump vows to uproot the roots of the American labor force, a move that could inadvertently undermine the robustness of the US economy.
Often unseen and often vilified, the nation's invisible workers are the bedrock of our land. They lay the foundations, clean the facilities, harvest our produce, and keep the wheels turning in the fast food joints. They're the ones the country can't seem to get enough of, yet can't seem to embrace. Trump rode the wave of anti-immigrant sentiment to the White House, and now finds himself in a precarious dance—a call to purge the boundaries, yet maintain an economic powerhouse.
Last weekend's raids in Los Angeles spurred large, at times violent protests. The tantrums of troops guarding the raids may ripple through the community, as people grapple with the dismantling of their neighborhoods. While raw numbers are sparse, it seems Trump's immigration policy has already begun to eddy the labor pool. A report by the "New York Times" suggests a shift in Trump's focus, sparing some industries from deportations.
On the Homefront, a Chilling Effect
Robert Dietz, chief economist of the US homebuilders, expresses concern. With construction workers shying away from sites under threat of enforcement, the industry takes a hit. The impact may be localized but, Dietz warns, the scarce housing market is alarmed. "We will see more raids on workplaces than ever in the history of this nation," Trump's "Border Czar" Tom Homan bluntly reiterated the government's stance. But what do these actions mean for the US economy?
The Foreign-Born Factor
Numbers are uncertain, but that's no surprise given the nature of the population at hand. Roughly every fifth employee in the US was born abroad—over 32 million people, working primarily in service jobs, construction, agriculture, and factories. They transport goods, repair roads, and keep our nation running.
According to estimates, between ten and twelve million people live in the US without proper authorization. Of these, over eight million are employed, comprising approximately five percent of the workforce. They dominate industries like agriculture, particularly.
From Lunch Plates to Supermarket Bills: Food Insecurity and Soaring Costs
In California alone, an estimated 75% of workers in the state's largest agricultural sector lack valid papers. Mass deportations could swiftly translate to emptier plates for Americans, or to higher shopping bills at the supermarket, where rising food costs are already stirring discontent.
If prices continue to rise, it could come back to haunt Trump and his party at the upcoming midterm elections. Trump may have hinted at potential adjustments to his immigration policy, writing, "We must protect our farmers, but remove the criminals from the U.S."
A Fool's Gold or a Silver Lining?
But mass deportations would also impact the federal budget. Irregular immigrants contribute taxes, either directly from their paychecks or later when shopping or paying rent. A third of those taxes are funneled into social security systems that immigrants themselves have limited access to, effectively subsidizing unemployment benefits, health insurance, and pensions for citizens.
Despite the Republican argument that immigrants depress housing markets, drive down wages, and steal jobs from US citizens, a chorus of experts suggests otherwise. "The idea that deportations would lead US workers to rush in and fill the same jobs is fantasy," Michael Clemens of "Foreign Policy" remarked. An analysis by a group around economist Andrés Velasco revealed that Obama's deportation of 400,000 people worsened job opportunities for both migrants and US citizens.
Spain, in contrast, implemented a different strategy in 2004, legalizing around 600,000 migrants already living in the country without proper authorization, provided they had a job offer. The result: around half eventually moved to legal, better-paying, and more demanding jobs. Notably, the number of informally employed native workers also decreased.
Trump, however, is keen on fulfilling his campaign promises, even if they come at a steep cost. The administration recently revoked residency permits for hundreds of thousands of people from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. The nation remains divided, teetering on the brink of a labor crisis as the future unfolds.
Sources:
- ntv.de
- en.wikipedia.org
- www.farmworkerjustice.org
- www.cato.org
The Commission, in light of the ongoing immigration policy discourse, might be called upon to address not only economic matters but also the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation in the context of potential labor shifts.
The complexities of Trump's immigration policy, ranging from the dismantling of neighborhoods to the potential shift in focus sparing certain industries, have brought politics and general news to the forefront of the economic discussion, as the nation grapples with the consequences on its workforce and economy.
