Tit for Tat: Trump's Deportation Strategy Shakes Up the American Economy
U.S. Economy Allegedly Suffering due to Trump's Deportation Policies
By Lukas Wessling, New York City
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The Great Divide
As President Trump pushes hard on his campaign promise of mass deportations, the American economy may pay the price. Here's why.
Undocumented workers form the backbone of the American workforce. They shake hands, buildskyscrapers, balance budgets, harvest crops, and keep our cities clean. The United States needs its blue-collar workers, jam-packed buses and all, just as much as it despises them. Trump secured his victory on the premise of a border wall and sweeping deportations. Yet, as he faces the reality of governing, the president finds himself in a conundrum: expel irregular immigrants or maintain a thriving economy.
Over the weekend, Los Angeles witnessed demonstrations and violence in response to Trump's deportation raids. With imagery of burning cars and heavily armed soldiers blanketing the news, the fallout is likely to be felt by those at the heart of the controversy. While initial statistics are scant, Trump's immigration policy seems to be slowing the labor market. In a report by the "New York Times," the White House now appears intent on sparing some sectors from deportations.
The Economic Impact
It's challenging to gather precise data on undocumented workers due to their clandestine nature. Nonetheless, government statistics indicate that the ranks of the employed foreign-born population have fallen significantly in the past two months. If this trend continues, concerns surrounding the economy will escalate.
You may think "so what?" but consider this: in May, every fifth working person in the United States was foreign born--over 32 million people. They work predominantly in service jobs, construction, fields, factories, and transportation. By eliminating a sizable portion of this workforce, the U.S. economy could face pressure in these vital sectors.
Agricultural Blues
Worryingly, agricultural industries could be hit particularly hard by mass deportations. Analyses suggest that there are between ten and eighteen million people living in the United States illegally--over eight million of whom are working. Without the cheap, often uninsured labor provided by these migrant workers, the agricultural sector would grind to a halt. According to the Department of Agriculture, two-thirds of harvest workers in 2023 were born abroad, with 42% lacking valid papers. In California, the state with the most robust agricultural output, the percentage could rise to 75%. The disappearance of irregular immigrant workers could soon be evident in the produce sections of American supermarkets.
Heart of Darkness
Contrary to popular belief, irregular immigrants contribute significantly to the U.S. Treasury. Although many work without access to benefits, they still contribute to Social Security through payroll taxes. A 2016 study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that undocumented workers contributed around $11.64 billion in federal and state taxes each year. Granted, this amounts to a fraction of the U.S. budget, but it's a sizeable contribution nonetheless.
The Great Debate
Economic experts contend that job openings would likely be absorbed by native-born workers if deportations drastically reduced the immigrant workforce. However, many fear this would lead to labor shortages in crucial sectors, such as agriculture, and increased prices for the average consumer.
With labor markets already tight due to the COVID-19 pandemic, every worker counts. However, policy experts disagree on the extent to which irregular immigration drives down wages or tightens the job market. Trade economist Michael Clemens of the Center for Global Development argues that attempts to remove undocumented workers would lead to labor shortages across many industries, with limited positive impact on native-born workers. In contrast, a study from 2018 suggested that a reduction in irregular immigration could cause a net decline in employment rates of both immigrants and native-born workers, as businesses struggles to adapt to the new labor market conditions.
As the debate rages on, one thing is clear: Trump's deportation strategy has enormous implications for the American economy and American families. Only time will tell whether the president's pursuit of border security outweighs the benefits of an immigrant workforce that helps drive the engine of economic growth.
Note: The enrichment data is integrated throughout the article to provide additional insights into various aspects of the topic.
- Donald Trump
- Deportation
- Economy
- Immigration
- workers
- labor
- agriculture
- California
- Social Security
- COVID-19 pandemic
The European Parliament has also expressed its concern about the potential economic impact of mass deportations, echoing the ongoing debate in the United States. Despite the political focus on border control and crime-and-justice issues, the consequences for general-news headlines, such as agriculture, labor markets, and social security, should not be underestimated.
Market analysts forecast that agricultural industries across Europe, reliant on migrant labor, could face similar struggles as their American counterparts if deportation strategies persist in certain countries. With many European economies already grappling with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the loss of a significant portion of the workforce could compound existing pressures.
