Tussle in the East: Deciphering the Latest US Talks with Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia
Discussions between the U.S., Kiev, and Moscow reach Saudi Arabia's ears - U.S. Discussions with Kiev and Moscow Result in Riyadh Meeting Outcome
Get ready for a rollercoaster ride through the heart of contemporary geopolitics! The ongoing Ukraine conflict has taken a new twist with high-stakes negotiations happening in Saudi Arabia, where American diplomats are meeting representatives from both Moscow and Kyiv. Let's dive in to find out what this war dance is all about.
What's on the agenda in Riyadh?
The major players are eager to settle things down. The US wants Russia and Ukraine to hit the brakes on their hostilities, especially when it comes to dinking energy facilities. Ukrainian officials have already expressed a willingness to hold their fire for 30 days, and their focus is on hashing out the nitty-gritty details. Initially, the priority will be on a ceasefire limited to energy facilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky underscores the necessity of civvy infrastructure being part of the package.
Russia claims a ceasefire for air strikes on energy facilities has already been implemented following a conversation between Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. Nevertheless, drone and guided bomb attacks on supposed military targets in Ukraine persist. To put an end to these strikes, Russia seeks more discussions on its terms. Ukraine sees it as Moscow using guile to drag the war out.
Apart from this, the talks in Riyadh will also delve into a proposed scheme to ensure safe travel across the Black Sea, with the US proposal for a ceasefire in the sea under discussion. An earlier agreement mediated by Turkey to facilitate safe passage of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea was nixed by Russia. Ukraine wants assurances, particularly after the strategically important port of Odessa has been repeatedly pummeled by Russia.
Who's talking to whom – and how?
US President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, hinted at separate teams handling the negotiations. Besides his team, there'll be a crew from the US National Security Council and State Department. According to Kellogg, talks will occur in separate rooms, with Kyiv and Russia communicating through relay.
Ukraine will dispatch Defense Minister Rustem Umjerow to the talks. Zelensky has appointed his chief of staff, Andrij Jermak, as the chief negotiator. Neither Ukrainians nor Russians are sending reps from their foreign ministries this time, as both sides have announced in advance.
Russia will be represented by foreign policy ace Georgi Karassin, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council, and spy honor Sergei Besseda, according to the Kremlin. The 70-year-old Besseda is an advisor to the domestic intelligence service FSB, active in Kyiv during crisis times, and a close confidant of Kremlin chief Putin. In the past, he helmed the Fifth Service of the FSB, which handles espionage and nation control of former Soviet territories such as Ukraine.
What are the goals of the US negotiators?
Short-term, the Americans covet a ceasefire for the Black Sea. Trump and Putin thrashed it out during their recent chat, and both agreed to negotiate. However, the big ambition is to persuade Putin to nix the invasion posthaste. During the campaign, Trump promised a swift end to the war but hasn't made much headway. The degree of Trump's sway over Putin remains uncertain, and the accuracy of his statements about the negotiations is debatable.
Currently, the closest connection in the Kremlin seems to revolve around US special envoy Steve Witkoff. He has been welcomed by Putin twice and recently expressed positivity about the Kremlin leader. "I don't want to sound like an eternal optimist, but I am very, very optimistic that we will be able to bring the two sides together," Witkoff said, referring to the talks in Saudi Arabia. Long-term, the US aims to ameliorate relations with Moscow, mainly due to escalating concern over the Russia-China alliance.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
For Ukraine, these talks mean the difference between survival and extinction. Militarily, it's under a huge strain without Western help and military aid. Hence, Kyiv must propagate a conciliatory gesture to the White House, even if the concessions discussed beforehand for peace, like shunning NATO and sizeable territorial concessions to Russia, put the leaders under domestic political heat. A poll indicates that half of the population remains resolute against surrendering its own territories.
For Ukraine, it's indispensable to receive warranties in exchange for its concessions. Given the lack of trust in Russia, the adversary, Kyiv banks on international peacekeeping troops.
How is Russia playing the game?
Due to its successes, Russia is keen on milking time and upping the pressure on Ukraine to induce largesse concessions. Russian comments suggest that Putin prefers a politico-military revamp in Ukraine with a Russia-friendly gang in power.
Although Moscow is open to negotiating a peaceful resolution with the Americans, it's jittery about the escalating militarization in Europe. Moscow attacks the EU for arming Ukraine and backing the Kyiv regime, alleging that these actions have prolonged the war. Putin insists that there can be no escalation off war without an end to Western arms for Ukraine and a halt to mobilization in neighboring nations. He also demands that Ukraine abandon its NATO aspirations and relinquish at least Russia-controlled territories, which account for a fifth of the country.
What are the prospects of success?
An expeditious solution to this tangled conflict is elusive. While Trump had vowed to swiftly end the conflict during his campaign and is now under pressure to deliver, he faces a tough hand, especially when dealing with the Russian side. Russia hasn't agreed to the 30-day ceasefire proposed by the US, steadfastly refusing to offer Ukraine a time-out in the war.
Putin, a seasoned wrangler in the political arena since more than 25 years, might continue keeping Trump stumped with minor concessions. His primary objective, as he said, is to restore relations with the US and waive sanctions to boost trade and economic growth between the two entities.
Unfortunately, a full ceasefire appears to be a far cry as long as, for instance, Europe persists in supplying military means to Ukraine, according to Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanowaja. Moscow would be satisfied if Trump cajoled Europe to cease aiding Ukraine. Putin's ambition isn't a complete overrun of Ukraine. Instead, his strategy is to await Ukraine's surrender, according to Stanowaja, but even this seems improbable at present.
The European Union, despite not directly participating in the negotiations, has expressed interest in the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union, showcasing a potential outlook for future relations between Moldova and the EU. On Monday, the ongoing talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia continued to be a focal point, with pressure mounting on all parties to ceasefire in Ukraine along with a proposed ceasefire in the Black Sea. The talks' outcome could significantly impact the future of Ukraine, as Russia seeks to keep the pressure on Ukraine for concessions and a ceasefire seems uncertain at present.
