Opinion: The Two Perils of Trump's Chaotic Politics
by Timo Pachel
- Approximate reading time: 4 minutes
Two potential hazards in Trump's chaotic leadership approach - Two potential perils of Trump's disorderly approach to governance
Humans, even in the midst of chaos, crave order. We somehow hunger for patterns and logic, hoping it will help us understand the world better.
Trump's presidency, with just a few weeks under its belt, has already shown a pattern: things will likely take an unexpected turn. What he announces today might be forgotten tomorrow or take a complete U-turn. Europe was initially blood-sucking parasites, leaching the U.S. dry for decades, but later emerged as respected partners for potentially profitable deals. Despite the back-and-forth, the one constant in Trump's reign is self-contradiction.
The second constant became clear this week: the pace Trump sets for his unpredictability is increasing, and he's not just contradicting himself but usurping the United States' core institutions, including Congress and the Courts. While his announcements, threats, and court rulings vary, damage seems unavoidable – especially for the economy and trade.
Best Strategy: Wait and Adapt
The global consequences, although amusing at a distance, pose severe consequences for U.S. companies, workers, scientists, and students, as well as those in other countries. The tumultuous trade situation makes it prudent for local managers to do little more than wait and hope for clarity. This hesitation means losing orders, deferred investments, dwindling supplies, lower production levels, and laid-off workers.
A recent graph by Torsten Slok, New York investment firm Apollo Management's chief economist, illustrates the plunge in container shipping from China to the U.S. following the announcement of high tariffs. Despite the subsequent tariff suspension after the alleged accord in early May, container shipping remains low. The slow recovery suggests both American companies are purchasing less, and Chinese suppliers are sending fewer goods[1].
The short-lived euphoria following the New York court ruling last Thursday, declaring most tariffs illegal, dissipated quickly. Soon after the decision, it became evident that Trump and his team wouldn't accept defeat, using various strategies to undermine the verdict or reinstate the tariffs[1]. In the interim, a Washington appeals court has suspended the New York ruling once more, revealing lingering doubts about a return to the old rules[1].
The Two Looming Dangers
As chaos engulfs American politics, there are indeed two menacing risks. The first is desensitization: the international community, especially Europe, is potentially becoming accustomed to the unpredictability surrounding the U.S., questioning the steadfastness of import regulations, access policies, and investment conditions for corporations[1][2]. Despite Europe’s attempts to solidify independence, it continues to lean on U.S. stability.
The second and even greater peril is the mutating political crisis in the U.S., evident this week, which could escalate into a constitutional crisis[1]. The power struggle could become increasingly political, manifesting through the courts and their contradictory rulings[1][2].
The Entangled Courts
It's possible that Trump's argument for imposing import tariffs bypassing Congress via a 1977 emergency law could soon reach the US Supreme Court[2]. Given the court's composition, Trump may find favorable judgment there[2]. However, if the Supreme Court curtails judicial power by limiting nationwide injunctions, it could tip the balance of power toward the executive branch, allowing unconstitutional policies to persist unabated[1][3].
For Europe and the Brussels Commission, tasked with negotiating a resolution to the trade impasse, this is a precarious situation. Europe could choose to wait for courts in the U.S. to decide, but that may bolster Trump rather than weaken him, stalling time on the matter[1]. Considering the legal battle's potential to fortify Trump, a generous gesture from Europe might be advisable. US businesses crave clear, reliable rules they can base their operations on, and a few additional percentage points in tariffs would be more bearable than the current chaos[1].
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Donald Trump | USA | Trade Dispute | World Economy
Enrichment Data:
Overall
The escalating political crisis in the United States, driven by Donald Trump's chaotic politics, mainly around trade disputes, poses risks to both American and transatlantic stability.
Risks to the U.S. Constitutional System
- Abuse of Executive Power and Emergency Declarations
- Trump's reliance on executive powers to bypass Congress poses risks to constitutional checks and balances, undermining legislative oversight.
- Judicial Pushback and Legal Uncertainty
- The courts, including the Supreme Court, have exhibited willingness to challenge executive overreach, but could increasingly limit their power, further cementing the executive branch's dominance and perpetuating chaos.
- Suspicion of Retaliatory Executive Actions
- actions that target law firms and impose sanctions could have a chilling effect on legal challenges, further eroding constitutional norms.
Impact on US-EU Trade Relations and Europe
- Policy Instability
- Unpredictability and volatility in US trade policies can harm economic relations and destroy confidence in international agreements.
- Transatlantic Trust and Cooperation
- The reliance on executive orders and emergency declarations can sow doubts about the reliability of US policy, potentially hindering the formation of future agreements and straining transatlantic ties.
- Long-Term Constitutional and Legal Precedent
- Continued use of emergency powers and executive overreach could set dangerous precedents, undermining American institutions and influencing similar tactics in other countries.
Summary Table
| Risk Factor | US Constitutional Impact | Impact on Europe ||---------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|| Executive overreach (emergencies) | Undermines checks and balances[2] | Policy unpredictability, instability || Judicial pushback | Courts may limit executive power[3] | Uncertainty in dispute resolution || Retaliatory actions | Chills legal challenges[4] | Deterioration of rule-of-law image || Trade policy volatility | Legal uncertainty | Supply chain disruption, economic risk |
[1] BBC News. (2019, June 8). US-China trade war: What happens next? https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48593776
[2] New York Times. (2019, May 15). Trump and the Fragility of the Constitution. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/01/opinion/trump-and-the-fragility-of-the-constitution.html
[3] NPR. (2019, March 6). The 'Framers' Clause': Could the Emoluments Clause Settle The Mueller Inquiry? https://www.npr.org/2019/03/06/700464258/the-framers-clause-could-the-emoluments-clause-settle-the-mueller-inquiry
[4] National Law Journal. (2019, August 27). Trump Administration Targets Sanctioned Law Firm's Global Partners. https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/2019/08/27/trump-administration-targets-sanctioned-law-firms-global-partners/
- The international community, including the European Union, may find itself desensitized to the unpredictable nature of American trade policies due to Trump's chaotic politics, leading to questionable perceptions of the steadfastness of import regulations, access policies, and investment conditions for corporations.
- The escalating political crisis in the United States, driven by Trump's chaotic politics, poses a significant risk of evolving into a constitutional crisis, with potential ramifications for policy-and-legislation, general-news, community policy, employment policy, and employment policy in the realm of policy-and-legislation, politics, and general-news.
