Twins' Winning Run May Face Termination by Orioles
Sparkin' Bats and Testin' Fists: Twins take on the struggling Orioles
Let's face it, I took a whiff yesterday with two losses, making me smell like a rose that's been trampled in a mud pit. I thought I was on to something with the Braves vs. Nationals, but I still ended up in the gutter. Welcome to the hot mess that is today's game between the Twins and the stumbling Orioles.
The Twins have found themselves in a bit of a roller coaster ride this season. They've had their highs and lows, but they're still hanging in there, coming in at a respectable 23-20 in the competitive AL Central Division. I haven't seen any team in this division showing real promise once they make it to the playoffs, but the Twins could be a contender if they keep their act together. Their inconsistent play this season is a testament to that, having lost four-game slumps twice, won three-game streaks three times, and even went on a 10-game winning streak. Keeping their current hot streak alive is none other than Chris Paddack taking the mound today. For the season, Paddack owns a 1-3 record with an ERA of 4.76. He's been making some solid appearances, particularly in terms of his WHIP at 1.29. If you remove his first outing of the season when he let nine earned runs slip past the White Sox, he's been a force to be reckoned with, throwing 36.1 innings and allowing only 12 earned runs. Sure, he's susceptible to the long ball, but they've mostly been solo shots due to limited baserunners. The Orioles' batters have knocked 10 hits in just 39 at-bats against Paddack.
May 4, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack (20) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
Enough about the competition; let's talk about the hopeless Orioles. After fighting tooth and nail for the division in the previous two seasons, this team seems to have misplaced both its batting and pitching skills. They're currently sitting 11 games below .500 with a record of 15-26. It's a sour look for a team that was expected to have a bright future, but it seems they've forgotten how to play baseball altogether. For the season, the team is hitting an abysmal .227 and they boast an uninspiring team ERA of 5.37. Both of those numbers are among the worst in the league. If they manage to pull themselves together, they have a chance to make a comeback, but right now, it looks bleak. There's a shining light on the horizon though - Tomoyuki Sugano is starting today. With a record of 4-2 and an ERA of 2.72, he's been a beacon of hope for this struggling rotation, providing them with a fighting chance to win almost every time he toes the rubber. Sugano has yet to face the Twins.
I said yesterday that the Nationals had to win eventually. The same goes for the Twins, but today is probably their unlucky day. The Twins still haven't found their footing on the road, struggling with a disappointing record of six games below .500. A lot of teams tend to bounce back after losing the first two games, so they might avoid getting swept. I'm taking my chances with the Twins on the moneyline today as I also fancy their starter more for this game.
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P.S. I don't always call games right, but when I do, it's like finding a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow!
Extra Insights:
- The Twins had a hot streak in mid-May, winning nearly 10 games in a row; contrastingly, the Orioles were struggling, sitting in last place in the AL East.
- When the Twins faced the Orioles in May 14-15, the Orioles started Tomoyuki Sugano (4-2, 2.72 ERA), who has a better ERA than most Twins starters, against Chris Paddack (1-3, 4.76 ERA), who had a less impressive record and ERA at that time.
- Advanced predictions and simulation models gave the Orioles a slight edge (around 54%) in their May 16 game, with the Twins being competitive as underdogs, despite the Twins' recent momentum and good offensive performances leading up to the May 14-15 games. Betting odds favored the Orioles at home.
Despite the Twins' promising record of 23-20 in the AL Central Division, they are facing a potential struggle against the Orioles, who currently have a dismal 15-26 record. Chris Paddack, the Twins' starter, has shown improvements this season, with a 1.29 WHIP and a 4.76 ERA, but the Orioles' batters have previously knocked 10 hits in 39 at-bats against him. Meanwhile, Tomoyuki Sugano, the Orioles' starter, has a better record and ERA compared to most Twins starters. Sports betting enthusiasts might see an opportunity in this game, as the Twins are still struggling on the road and have a disappointing record that is six games below .500.
