"Trusting the incoming Chancellor of Germany for our future prospects"
In the heart of Europe, as tanks parade through Moscow to commemorate victory over Nazi oppression, industry leaders and experts in Kyiv ponder Ukraine's survival against a belligerent Russia with less – or potentially no – US support. What remains of the waning transatlantic alliance under President Trump, and is there even a glimmer of hope for peace? controversially, without the US, Ukraine must forge ahead with a backup plan.
Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's former President, commented on the sidelines of the Kyiv Security Forum, "We're on the front line, in an extremely challenging situation. It's not just a lack of manpower, but also technology, ammunition, and air defense systems." With optimism, Poroshenko expressed his faith in the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, after a recent conversation left him feeling "impressed by his commitment to strengthen Germany's leadership role in all of Europe." This investment in Ukraine is more than just supporting a neighbor; it's about bolstering European security as a whole.
The Cracks in the Western Alliance
Since President Trump took office, the Western coalition has shown signs of fracturing. Ukraine, a territory in which Russian troops have been entrenched for over a decade and where large-scale conflict has raged since early 2022, refuses to accept this. This divide is the centerpiece of the forum's opening speech, where delegates from the Western world gather to strategize. Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk implored the allies, "We did it 80 years ago, and we will restore the world order again."
Arming for Victory
Yatsenyuk drew a historical parallel. In 1938, when the free world sought a compromise with Hitler, it was disastrous. "Hitler launched the large-scale invasion of Ukraine." Putin, today, operates under a different set of rules than Trump, yet Yatsenyuk warns that Russia will not seek peace unless confronted with superior military deterrence.
Kurt Volker, Trump's former Ukraine envoy, agreed during a panel, stating bluntly that Putin will never accept peace. Trump's administration places immense pressure on Ukraine but exerts minimal demand on Russia to cease hostilities. To expedite a ceasefire, Volker argued that the pressure on Moscow must be intensified.
A Shift Towards Innovative Technologies
Technological advancements are increasingly crucial on the modern battlefield. Drones, in particular, are no longer seen as mere auxiliary systems; they now hold the power to decide battles. Shutenko, a battalion commander for unmanned systems, asserts that Ukraine must produce and maintain a steady supply of drones to emerge victorious. Most significantly, this drone production should be scalable to accommodate the demands of the ever-evolving battlefield.
Ukraine is rapidly developing military technology, spurred on by the desire to survive. Dmytro Shymkiw, a tech entrepreneur, emphasized that rapid advancements in technology are vital to protecting soldiers' lives and boosting the economies of allies who support Ukraine, such as Germany, Britain, and Portugal.
The Role of Personnel and International Support
Commander Shutenko believes that, even with an arsenal of drones, Ukraine alone cannot win the war. Experienced infantry and attack personnel are essential, but so is continuous international support. This support encompasses diplomatic measures, sanctions, air forces, and artillery. "We are fighting here in Ukraine against one of the most powerful armies in the world. If we can inflict sufficient losses on the Russians, they will be forced to negotiate for peace."
However, negotiations have proved elusive thus far. Julia Kazdobina, a security expert and the director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research in Krakow, Poland, attributes this failure to misguided US efforts. "They are attempting to create peace without considering the history and causes of the war. They equate both sides of the conflict and disregard that Russia is the aggressor, and the aggression is premeditated and purposeful."
The Imperative of Continued Aid and innovation
The ideal scenario would involve continuous US aid to avoid resource depletion. However, if the US commitment wanes, experts agree that Ukraine must remain agile and pursue alternative sources of support. Euro-Atlantic partners like Germany and individual European countries may fill the gap left by the US. Additionally, forming capability coalitions can offer a more stable and diverse base of support for Ukraine's defense efforts.
Ukraine's struggle for survival becomes increasingly complex as it balances the loss of US support with the search for alternative international allies. This ever-changing landscape requires ingenuity, rapid adaptation, and resilience in the face of adversity.
- Ukraine, without US support, is forced to rely on its backup plan, as Petro Poroshenko, the former President, highlights a lack of manpower, technology, ammunition, and air defense systems.
- The Western coalition, once solid under previous administrations, has shown signs of fracturing since President Trump took office, posing a significant challenge for Ukraine amid escalating war-and-conflicts with Russia.
- Kurt Volker, Trump's former Ukraine envoy, argued during a panel that Putin will never accept peace unless confronted with superior military deterrence, urging the intensification of pressure on Moscow to expedite a ceasefire.
- Dmytro Shymkiw, a tech entrepreneur, underscored the significance of rapid technological advancements in protecting soldiers' lives and boosting economies of allies supporting Ukraine, such as Germany, Britain, and Portugal.
