Trump's remarkable first-term asset could potentially transform into his most significant liability in his second term.
President Donald J. Trump's second term has raised concerns about his economic performance, with public approval ratings for his handling of the economy slipping below overall approval. This shift stands in stark contrast to his first term, where he consistently enjoyed higher approval ratings for his economic management.
For instance, an early February Gallup poll revealed that fewer people gave Trump positive marks on the economy compared to his overall performance, marking the first time such a scenario occurred. Similarly, a CNN/SRSS poll released Wednesday pointed to Trump's approval rating for the economy (44%) falling slightly below his overall approval rating (45%). Since January, the public's assessment of Trump's economic performance has often lagged behind his rating for other major issues such as immigration or foreign affairs.
However, it's important to note that opinions about Trump's economic management are not set in stone. Pollsters agree that most Americans are willing to give him more time to address inflation, the issue that mattered to more of his voters than any other during the 2020 election. In February, inflation slightly less than expected according to the latest government report.
Despite these temporary dips, Trump's overall job approval remains slightly higher than at the same point in his first term, though still below that of any other new president in modern polling history.
Yet, the inversion of the first-term pattern on his economic approval serves as an early warning signal for Trump. It suggests that if he cannot make progress against high prices, the same frustration with inflation that weakened Biden could undermine Trump as well. This is particularly concerning because polls also show that most voters do not believe Trump prioritizes inflation as much as they do themselves.
According to long-time Democratic pollster Nick Gourevitch, Trump's economic approval rating is a "red flag" due to the prominent role economics and inflation played in voter decisions during the 2020 election. In the past, confidence in the economy plaid a stabilizing role for Trump, reinforcing his standing with the public, even during periods of turbulence on other fronts. However, these early results suggest apprehension about the economy has become a source of political instability for Trump and a potential ceiling on his support.
Trump's economic performance poses risks for upcoming elections, as a president's approval rating plays a significant role in elections during their tenure. In 2018, exit polls found that 9 in 10 voters who disapproved of Trump's performance supported Democratic House candidates, while nearly as many who approved of him backed Republicans. Even though Biden was not on the ballot in 2024, over 4 in 5 voters who disapproved of his performance likewise voted against his successor, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Recent surveys show Trump's return to the White House has not dispelled Americans' gloom about the economy. The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, for example, notably dipped in February, reaching levels not seen since the final months of Biden's term. The heightened unease is fueled by expectations of future inflation and perceived stagnation in personal financial prospects.
In a late February CBS/YouGov national poll, over three-fourths of those surveyed said their incomes were not keeping pace with prices, with this sentiment shared equally among White, Black, and Latino respondents. Even in an NPR/PBS-News/Marist poll taken around the same time, nearly three-fifths of adults expected grocery prices to increase over the next six months.
Despite his strong showing on other issues such as immigration, polls suggest the intractable concern about prices is acting more as a headwind against Trump. Trump's 42% economic approval rating in Gallup's February poll was lower than his worst first-term result (45% in April 2017). The 56% share of Americans who disapproved of Trump's economic performance in the new CNN/SRSS poll far exceeded his worst first-term result, with a majority of Americans disapproving of his economic management in a CNN poll for the first time.
These trends are particularly concerning for Trump among independent voters. The latest University of Michigan survey found independent assessment of current and future economic conditions were worse than at any point during Trump's first term, even during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Fewer than one-third of independents approved of his economic performance in the February Gallup poll, a figure lower than at any point during his first term. In this week's CNN/SRSS poll, only 20% of independents thought Trump's policies had improved the economy, with nearly three times as many saying his agenda has hurt economic conditions.
Some Republicans, like pollster Micah Roberts, argue these sagging assessments of Trump's economic performance should not concern him yet. They point out that even during Trump's first term, his approval ratings on the economy started relatively modest and then substantially improved over the next three years, until the pandemic erupted in early 2020. Roberts believes that it will take time for Trump's policies to start making a difference and for him to promote their results effectively.
However, others, like Democratic pollster Jay Campbell, argue that these economic results will heavily influence Trump's standing with the less partisan voters who can tip elections, such as this fall's gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and next year's midterms. Campbell believes that independents, who are sensitive to pocketbook issues and the economy, will play a decisive role in these elections.
A pollster like Micah Roberts might agree that Trump's economic approval ratings are currently low, but he may argue they have the potential to improve as his policies are implemented and introduced to the public more effectively. However, a pollster such as Jay Campbell might contend these economic results could significantly impact Trump's standing with less partisan voters, such as those in the upcoming gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, and the midterms in 2022, as independents tend to be more sensitive to pocketbook issues and the economy. The results of various polls indicate that Trump's lowest economic approval ratings have occurred during both his first and second term, with 56% of Americans disapproving of his economic management in a recent CNN poll, marking a new low.
