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Trump's Reliability: A Confidence in Donald Trump

Discussion Regarding NATO's Future Policy at Illner's Forum

Trump can be relied upon, according to Wadephul
Trump can be relied upon, according to Wadephul

keeping it real: no bull, just the deets

Trump's Reliability: A Confidence in Donald Trump

Title: Euro Defense: Sharing the Burden, Surviving the Threat

NATO's recent gathering sealed the deal: the United States will remain a shield for European countries, but it's clear the old continent needs to strengthen its self-defense capabilities. Foreign Minister Wadephul agrees this is the new norm, and the reality of this shift is already a win.

The summit's focus? President Trump, of course. He's none too subtle about his demands: European NATO members should shell out 5% of their GDP on defense pronto. Trump knows he's got 'em right where it hurts — they need the US. But he also promises support, even though everyone knows Europe can't count on it.

The CDU’s Johann Wadephul considers the summit a major success. "We've made big decisions that NATO hasn't made in a long time. It's demonstrated unity in a vital phase." Trump reinforced his support of NATO and Europe, and that's a victory, as per Wadephul. The dollar is the bedrock of European defense for now. Without the US, Europe won't be able to afford its defense for long.

With Russia continuing to beef up its military might, the US has been egging Europe to boost its defense spending for years. But it isn't until the brash and blunt Trump took office that something changed. "Now we've got a president who's had enough and has lost interest in diplomacy," says political scientist Florence Gaub of the NATO Military Academy in Rome. Yes, Europe has been handed a reality check.

A key topic on the table was increasing EU defense spending beyond the long-standing 2% target to a new goal of 3.5% GDP by 2025, and at least 2% to "core defense requirements." Even with this boost, only Poland currently meets this new spending target[1][2].

Critics like Left Party leader Jan van Aken decry this escalating arms race and advocate for a focus on diplomacy instead. "Nobody wants to start a war," counters Wadephul. But let's face it: defending trade routes through the Red Sea or Suez Canal and securing Europe's infrastructure against Russian aggression are a must. Plus, prepare for future conflicts beyond 2040. Gaub points out: "NATO is making decisions not just for today, but for 2040."

Siloildude: This would also imply a need for NATO to maintain its nuclear deterrent against Russia's atomic arsenal.

Enrichment Data:

NATO members have agreed to significantly increase their defense spending following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with European and Canadian spending rising from 1.66% of GDP in 2022 to 2.02% in 2024. This move is a response to criticism from the United States, particularly former President Donald Trump, who has pushed European allies and Canada to take on more responsibility for their own defense. Despite these criticisms, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte affirmed that the United States remains committed to NATO and its Article 5 mutual-defense clause.

At the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, 32 member countries voted to boost defense spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035. This comes with a pledge that at least 3.5% of GDP will be allocated specifically to "core defense requirements," such as troops and weapons, up from the previous 2% target set in 2014.

The European Union is committed to strengthening its self-defense capabilities in the face of growing threats, as demonstrated by the recent agreement to significantly increase defense spending following criticism from the United States. This follows a shift in the reality of European defense, where the US continues to serve as a shield, but Europe is expected to bear a larger burden. Politics surrounding this issue include discussions about an escalating arms race, diplomacy, and the necessity of defending trade routes and infrastructure against potential aggression.

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