Trump’s Protectionist Push Threatens to Derail Global Trade in 2026
Global trade faces growing uncertainty as U.S. policies under Donald Trump push protectionism to new heights. Recent data shows a sharp decline in exports and imports, with Germany and China feeling the impact. Experts now warn of stagnation—or even a downturn—in the year ahead.
Trade policy uncertainty has hit record levels since Trump took office. His approach has reshaped international commerce, leading to higher tariffs and a shift away from long-standing trade agreements. Many countries have responded by adopting their own protective measures, fearing trade diversions and economic losses.
Real-world trade performed well in early 2025, but signs of a slowdown have emerged. German exports dropped by over eight percent in October compared to the previous year. U.S. imports from China also fell sharply during the same period. China has tried to offset the decline by redirecting its trade to other markets. This adjustment has helped stabilise global commerce so far. However, Gabriel Felbermayr, director of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (Wifo), expects little growth—or even a contraction—in global trade next year. The U.S. withdrawal from the rules-based trading system has added to the instability. With Trump’s policies driving higher tariffs, businesses and governments worldwide are bracing for further disruptions.
The outlook for global trade remains bleak as uncertainty persists. Germany’s export slump and China’s shifting trade routes highlight the challenges ahead. If current trends continue, 2026 could see the first decline in international commerce in years.
