Trump's Preferred Continent in Europe
Hungary's Orbán: A Model for Trump's Authoritarian Dream?
Donald Trump keeps singing praises for Hungary's dictatorial leader, Viktor Orbán, calling him his favorite foreign buddy. Trump's fondness for the Hungarian autocrat stems from Orbán's no-nonsense style and his conservative victories. Trump adores how Orbán and his Fidesz party have clamped down on immigration to Hungary, defied the EU and NATO, shunned renewable energy, and etched traditional values into Hungarian laws and societal norms.
To foresee Trump's future moves, let's scrutinize how Orbán turned a shaky democracy into an "entrenched autocracy" - an administration that appears democratic yet secures power by manipulating elections and controlling institutions. Fidesz preserves democratic aspects such as elections and freedom of speech, yet the outcomes are predetermined.
During Fidesz's initial term, from 1998 to 2002, Orbán was bound by the laws of the fledgling post-communist democracy, system checks, and a determined opposition. In his second term, Orbán started diligently dismantling these impediments. Orbán's key insight was that personnel must be unwaveringly loyal, adversaries must be exterminated from the get-go, and faithful patrons must be rewarded. Surrounding himself with an ever-growing circle of loyalists, Orbán transformed some into billionaire oligarchs.
Orbán expeditiously eliminated all obstacles that had thwarted him during his first term. Trump's sycophantic cabinet members and oligarch associates are cut from the same cloth, and his dismissal of a dozen inspectors general and hollowing out of oversight bodies opens the path for corruption and the creation of a clientelistic network – a hallmark of Orbán's regime, spanning from the smallest village mayor to the highest Fidesz party official.
Paul Hockenos is an American political scientist and journalist based in Berlin. He has covered the fall of communist states in Eastern Europe and the wars in the former Yugoslavia, and now focuses on renewable energy and the environment.
András Bozoki is a Hungarian sociologist and professor at the Central European University, and co-author of "Embedded Autocracy: Hungary in the European Union" (2024). Between 2005 and 2006, he served as Hungary's culture minister.
Nevertheless, none of Orbán's plans are more momentous than the cooption of public media and the suppression of independent information sources. When Fidesz came to power, it already had an overwhelmingly conservative media landscape backing it. But dismissals and directives turned public broadcasting into the regime's mouthpiece.
Revised media laws and state-funded advertising fostered new media moguls like Orbán's long-time friend and former classmate Lajos Simicska, whom Orbán made one of Hungary's richest men – much like Trump's coziness with Elon Musk. Although U.S. government support for public media is much lower than in Europe, the National Public Radio, Public Broadcasting Service, and Voice of America now face funding cuts and comprehensive reform.
The USA is (still) not Hungary.
In Hungary, Orbán's power seizure was achievable due to the country's peculiar election laws. In 2010, Fidesz, in conjunction with a tiny satellite party, won a two-thirds majority in parliament in the second round, granting them the power to approve constitutional amendments that consolidated executive power, altered election conditions, and eroded judicial independence. In one year, Fidesz had redrafted the constitution, and neutered the constitutional court.
Subsequent to this, Orbán reshaped the electoral system. Behind closed doors, the state engaged in nationwide gerrymandering. For example, the voting rights of the two million Hungarians of the Hungarian minority in neighboring countries – loyal Fidesz voters – were enhanced by allowing them to vote by mail or send a proxy to the polling station. Simultaneously, the approximately 600,000 Hungarians living outside Central Europe, who are predominantly liberal, must personally submit their ballots at a Hungarian consulate.
To guarantee that opposition parties never resurface, a state agency imposed fines on six opposition parties in 2022, accusing them of lack of transparency. In this fashion, Orbán also targeted the Hungarian civil society, including NGOs, think tanks, and the renowned Central European University. The premier, acting with an iron fist, claimed that these "unselected" civilians were sponsored by Western donors and undermined the state in a treacherous manner: that is, the Fidesz government, the only one claiming to represent the Hungarian people.
Trump's quick ascent may mirror Orbán's in 2010, but the American has a long way to go to repeat it. The 2024 Supreme Court ruling recognizing the absolute immunity of the president from prosecution grants him more flexibility than during his first term. However, the logic behind Trump's comprehensive attack on the system of checks and balances bears a spooky resemblance to Orbán's.
- The policy-and-legislation tactics employed by Hungary's Orbán mirror Trump's aspirations, as both leaders have used their power to alter election conditions, consolidate executive power, and erode judicial independence, reflecting a war-and-conflicts mentality in polices.
- In the realm of crime-and-justice, Orbán's co-optation of public media and suppression of independent information sources shed light on how Trump's potential attack on the National Public Radio, Public Broadcasting Service, and Voice of America could follow a similar pattern, threatening general-news sources.
- The strategies Orbán used to achieve power, such as gerrymandering districts, silencing opposition parties, fining NGOs, and targeting civic organizations, could serve as a roadmap for Trump's authoritarian inclinations, further exacerbating the divide between politics and the American public.
