Trump's path may lead to peace in Ukraine, or potentially, into Putin's strategy
In the coming days, US President Donald Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a highly anticipated summit. The meeting, scheduled to take place face-to-face, has been the subject of much discussion, as it carries potential benefits and significant risks for the US and its allies.
The potential benefits for the US, as some experts suggest, include advancing a political settlement to end the war in Ukraine, which Trump has emphasized as his summit objective. Such a meeting might create an opportunity for dialogue on cyber-related concerns and future diplomacy. Moreover, it might pave the way for a follow-up gathering involving Ukraine's president and further negotiations to stabilize European security.
However, the potential problems are equally noteworthy. The summit risks sidelining Ukraine and Europe, undermining alliances, and empowering Russia diplomatically. This could potentially encourage other coercive actors, such as China, to follow suit. Announcing territorial concessions beforehand could hand Moscow a diplomatic advantage and anger European allies, risking broader geopolitical instability.
The exact concessions that Putin might offer are unclear, but Trump’s focus on ending the fighting suggests possible discussions about territorial “land swaps” or localized ceasefires in Ukraine. Europe's concern is that Russia could extract undue advantages if the US signals flexibility before talks begin.
The meeting also has broader geopolitical implications, as China is observing closely and interpreting the outcome as a precedent for its negotiations with the US, especially on issues like Taiwan. The Chinese leadership is reportedly shifting its position, adding another layer of complexity to the summit.
Amidst this, Trump believes he can end the Ukraine conflict with a personal deal, similar to real estate negotiations. However, calming the nerves of Ukrainian President Zelensky won't be an easy task, especially given the political drama surrounding his status change and the rumours of Washington's eagerness to get rid of him as an obstacle to a deal.
The US President's Special Envoy, Stephen Biegun, has visited Moscow in preparation for the meeting. The exact outcome of the summit remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the world is watching closely, and the stakes are high.
The summit between President Trump and President Putin could potentially advance a political settlement to end the war in Ukraine, addressing a concern Trump has highlighted, offering an opportunity for dialogue on cyber-related concerns and future diplomacy. However, the meeting risks sidelining Ukraine and Europe, undermining alliances, and empowering Russia diplomatically, which could encourage other coercive actors like China to follow suit. The US President's focus on ending the conflict and potential discussions about territorial concessions or land swaps have broader geopolitical implications, with China observing closely and interpreting the outcome as a precedent for its negotiations, particularly on issues like Taiwan.
