Trump's Lifting of Syria Sanctions Brings Hope for Economic Renewal; Analysis Suggests Relief May Take Time to Show Results

Syria's Shift

Syrian citizens and economic experts are over the moon as President Donald Trump has announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria. The news comes as a much-needed break for a nation trying to recover from nearly 50 years under a dynastic rule and a devastating near-14-year war.

Trump's decision boosted the Syrian pound, giving the economy a much-needed boost amidst economic hardship. Economist Ibrahim Nafi Qushji told Al Jazeera that the change could significantly reshape trade and investment relations for Syria.

Sanctions Hurdles

While the announcement is expected to bring progress, analysts and experts warn of stumbling blocks in the removal of sanctions. Trump's decision dates back to 1979, when Syria was named a "state sponsor of terrorism." Over the years, additional sanctions were placed on the state and individuals associated with the regime, opposition, and extremist groups.

Vittorio Maresca di Serracapriola, sanctions lead analyst at Karam Shaar Advisory Limited, explained that these sanctions include a range of export controls, executive orders targeting the banking sector, and acts passed by the US Congress. Trump could remove certain sanctions via executive order, and some designations could be removed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, other sanctions might prove trickier to lift.

A New Beginning for Syria

The impact of this move could be tremendous. Analysts said it would be a significant turning point for Syria's economy, shifting it from interactions with developing economies to integrating with more developed and sophisticated markets. But it's unclear how the US government will implement its promised sanctions removal, as the tools are technical and complex.

However, sanctions relief alone won't miraculously revive Syria's economy. The country still needs banking reforms and needs to court international investors with incentives to build trust. Syria must also focus on internal economic reforms, like improving its business environment and enhancing financial transparency. A sustainable recovery requires a focus on long-term growth and economic integration.

A Meeting of Minds

Trump's decision had been long advocated by Syria's new leadership, analysts, and world powers. Over the years, the US had taken a firm stance against Syria's government, mainly due to perceived ties with violence and armed groups. But regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey have built strong relations with Damascus.

Recently, tensions had eased between the US and Turkey, as Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan phoned in during a meeting between Trump and Syria's President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The meeting seemed pleasant for Trump, who called al-Sharaa "a young, attractive guy. Tough guy. Strong past. Very strong past. Fighter."

The two leaders discussed issues such as counterterrorism cooperation, dealing with foreign fighters, and Syria's possible recognition of Israel. These don't appear to be preconditions but could slow down the lifting of sanctions. Syria's future now seems to be one marked by cautious optimism, potential growth, and the challenge of economic reform.

Additional Considerations

The United States has set several conditions for the removal of sanctions on Syria:

Counterterrorism Efforts: Full renunciation and suppression of terrorism, and exclusion of foreign terrorist fighters from official roles.
Iran and Proxies: Prevention of Iran and its proxies from exploiting Syrian territory.
Chemical Weapons: Verifiable destruction of Assad's chemical weapons.
Citizen Recovery: Assisting in recovering U.S. and other citizens disappeared in Syria.
Minority Rights: Ensuring the security and freedoms of Syria's religious and ethnic minorities.
Normalization of Relations: Normalization of U.S.-Syria relations, potentially leading to joining the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel.

Syria's economic rejuvenation could be facilitated by:

Encouraging Investment: Allowing foreign capital to flow into Syria, particularly in energy.
Reconstruction Efforts: Participating in Syria's massive reconstruction efforts, potentially stimulating economic growth.
Reducing Poverty: Improving access to basic necessities and infrastructure, reducing poverty.

Syria's international relations may shift due to:

Reducing Reliance: Reducing dependence on Russia, China, and Iran, allowing the US to exert more influence in the region.
Diplomatic Normalization: Diplomatic normalization with Israel through the Abraham Accords, potentially stabilizing the region.
Regional Dynamics: Changing regional power struggles, potentially leading to internal conflicts over foreign investment and influence.

These conditions and shifts, however, also pose challenges: internal power struggles and the need for concrete actions to ensure meaningful recovery and rights improvements.

The removal of sanctions on Syria, due to President Trump's decision, has the potential to significantly reshape trade and investment relations for Syria, as well as integrate its economy with more developed and sophisticated markets, according to economist Ibrahim Nafi Qushji.
While the lifting of sanctions could boost Syria's economy, analysts warn of stumbling blocks in the process. These sanctions, which include export controls, executive orders targeting the banking sector, and acts passed by the US Congress, might prove tricky to lift, especially considering Syria's past as a "state sponsor of terrorism."
The future of Syria seems to be one marked by cautious optimism, potential growth, and the challenge of economic reform, as the US government implements its promised sanctions removal. A sustainable recovery requires a focus on long-term growth, economic integration, banking reforms, and international investment, as well as internal economic reforms such as improving the business environment and enhancing financial transparency.
Syria's international relations may shift due to factors such as reducing dependence on Russia, China, and Iran, allowing the US to exert more influence in the region, and potential diplomatic normalization with Israel through the Abraham Accords, which could stabilize the region. However, these changes could also lead to internal conflicts over foreign investment and influence, as well as the need for concrete actions to ensure meaningful recovery and rights improvements.