Trump's Kazakhstan Trip Appears More Plausible Than Believed, Claims American Expert
Unshackling the Past: A Fresh Look at Kazakhstan-US Relations
ASTANA - As we strolled towards the filming location for The Astana Times YouTube channel, Daniel F. Runde Senior, Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies based in Washington, D.C., US, voiced his opinions on a relic of the past that still lingers in Kazakhstan-US relations: the Jackson-Vanik Amendment. Runde had recently taken part in a panel at the Astana International Forum (AIF) 2025, focusing on trade as a weapon.
He pointed out a lingering sore point in Kazakhstan-US relations: the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, passed by the U.S. Congress in 1974. Long before Kazakhstan could have anticipated its current standing, this amendment aimed to pressure the Soviet Union to grant greater freedom of emigration, particularly for Jews and other minorities. Runde shared that many people in Washington remain unaware of the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, yet it persists in both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
"Outdated and past its prime. We need to fix this," he declared.
Runde suggests that resolving the issue will necessitate a strong political alliance, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan uniting in the fight.
"There ought to be a coalition of countries that come together and the businesses that benefit from future trade, with these countries. I find it unfortunate that it continues. I'm ashamed as an American that we continue to hold onto this. We shouldn't have this. I know it's a sore point in our relationship, and I think we can be honest with each other," he revealed.
Runde explained that this issue mostly revolves around the U.S. political process.
"It's a matter of the U.S. political process dysfunction, not someone sitting in the White House demanding that it stays in place. There's no central planning mind," he explained, citing that foreign policy and national security committees differ from the committee handling Jackson-Vanik, which deals with trade and taxes. He added that diplomats usually lack the appropriate connections on Capitol Hill to influence this issue effectively.
Trump's Second Term: A New Opportunity for US-Kazakhstan Relations
The focus then shifted to Donald Trump and his politics, both domestic and international. Runde highlighted that Trump's return to office offers a rare chance for Kazakhstan and Central Asia in general. Although diplomatic ties span over 30 years, no US president has ever visited Kazakhstan. Runde contemplated the possibility of President Trump becoming the first.
"If you asked me who would be the most likely President to visit in the last 30 years, and then in the next 30 years, it's going to be Donald Trump in his second term. And the reason for that is-I think if Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were to put together a comprehensive economic proposal with a significant figure attached, similar to what we've seen in the Middle East, he would come here," he explained.
Runde suggested that Trump's de-emphasis on the climate agenda would directly impact Kazakhstan's oil production.
"I think President Trump would favor Kazakhstan producing even more oil, as this would lower the cost of gas for the American worker and citizen at the pump. Lower oil prices mean cheaper food," he expressed.
Runde also underscored Trump's political style, which shies away from lecturing on uncomfortable topics, and his human rights agenda, which is likely to concentrate on religious freedom, a key area that Kazakhstan has been promoting.
"Kazakhstan is a world leader in religious freedom. So on a human rights agenda front and on an energy and climate front, President Trump is likely to be a friendly president and exhibit a benign approach towards Kazakhstan," he explained.
However, he added that for Kazakhstan to reap more benefits from the US, it needs to take a proactive approach and work together with Uzbekistan to propose an appealing offer.
Kazakhstan's Diplomatic Dance: A Balancing Act
He emphasized Kazakhstan's steadfast dedication to cooperation with numerous global players.
"It has been evident since your independence that you've taken a multilateral approach and embraced interdependence. You've tried to forge good relations with Russia. You've improved your relations with China. You've improved your relations with Uzbekistan significantly. You've sought deeper and sustained ties with the United States and Europe," he added.
Runde noted the progress that Kazakhstan has made, which he has witnessed over the past decade or so.
"Kazakhstan is a remarkable development success story. In 1991, I think the GDP per capita of Kazakhstan was something like $700 per person. Today, it's around $15,000 per person. I've been to Astana several times since 2017, and every time I come, I'm amazed by the progress here. Astana is a city that emerged from nothing 25 years ago. So Kazakhstan has a lot of potential, and it works hard to maintain relationships with everyone," he remarked.
He also commended the democracy that Kazakhstan has adopted, even though it isn't perfect. He believes that the arc of progress bends towards democracy and supports the Kazakh government's effort to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)- "the club of market democracies."
Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap: Kazakhstan's Road to Innovation
Runde further discussed the importance of progressing beyond the middle-income trap that Kazakhstan risks falling into. An economy reliant on commodities is vulnerable, but Runde acknowledged that Kazakhstan's political establishment is aware of this and has taken steps to mitigate the risks by establishing a sovereign wealth fund and investing in educational programs for younger generations.
"Kazakhstan needs to move away from commodities and develop a knowledge economy, a service economy, an innovation economy, and more political freedom. That's what your president was talking about," he said.
He also highlighted that Kazakhstan's most significant resource is its people.
"It's not your oil, it's not your minerals, it's not your location-which can be a blessing and a curse. Yes, it's a blessing in many ways. You could turn that into a positive-the Middle Corridor," he added.
Runde mentioned that critical minerals, a topic of great interest today, could be transported down the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Trade Route) instead of passing through Iran. He suggests that the US should become a better partner in making this route more attractive and efficient than other existing ones.
For the full conversation, please watch the interview on The Astana Times YouTube channel.
1) In the context of the outdated Jackson-Vanik Amendment, Runde suggests that political alliances between Kazakhstan and other affected countries, coupled with support from businesses, may be necessary to address this lingering issue in Kazakhstan-US relations, which primarily stems from the U.S. political process.
2) Amid discussion about the Trump presidency's potential impact on US-Kazakhstan relations, Runde posits that a strong economic proposal by both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, offering substantial benefits, could motivate President Trump to visit Kazakhstan in his second term, provided it aligns with his energy, climate, and human rights agendas.
